It’s the last day of March, and baseball is in full “swing”. DK has been a touch shaky out of the gate, but I still haven’t lost on FD so let’s keep that momentum going today on our first Sunday slate. Pitching is rather deep today so some choices will have to be made, and the Yankees are reigning supreme as the top offense once again. Be sure to give FTA a try and see our new A.C.E. projection model, and follow me on twitter @jac3600.
Patrick Corbin, WAS ($9800)
The trio of Happ/Corbin/Carrasco are all super close, and I was sure I’d go Happ since he’s a -350 favorite with a, IRTA of three. However, an issue with Happ on FD is that he didn’t reach six innings in 46% of his starts last year, and FD heavily weights the QS. It’s enough to push him down in projections just a touch, but I’ll be looking at him on DK for sure.
Corbin seems to be the safest combination of floor and ceiling here despite a couple of months last season where his velocity dipped. The Mets had the third highest K rate against LHP a season ago and also had a lower wOBA against LHP than even the lowly Orioles. Corbin is not near as big a favorite as Happ due to the Mets throwing out a quality pitcher in Wheeler, but the Mets’ IRT is only 3.3 runs (only the O’s are lower) and Corbin has proven to be an innings horse.
Other options – J.A. Happ, Carlos Carrasco (both more than viable in cash)
Jon Gray, COL ($7900)
Gray is cash viable for anyone who is a little more risk tolerant. He allowed 1.41 HR/9 last season but his 5.12 ERA was predictably backed by a 3.47 xFIP (Coors Field effect). Gray is a high K rate pitcher getting one of the biggest park boosts in his favor today, and Miami has a measly IRT of 3.4 runs. His price on DK is too high, but on FD you can invest.
Other options – Michael Pineda, Corbin Burnes, Trent Thornton, Dylan Bundy
Joey Votto, CIN ($4000)
The Reds are enjoying a park boost in their home Great American Ballpark, and Votto will face off against Joe Musgrove who has only a 17% K rate against LHB. Votto’s power was down last season, but he has a .232 ISO against RHP over the past three seasons and an elite K/BB ratio.
Other options – Paul Goldschmidt, Luke Voit, Miguel Cabrera
Greg Bird, NYY ($2500)
Bird may not hit higher than seventh, but he’s more than viable for a Yankees offense that has by far the highest IRT on the slate (5.5) and is facing the worst pitcher in Dylan Bundy. The Orioles righty allowed the most homers in the league last season at an alarming 2.33 HR/9 rate, and Bird has a career .220 ISO against RHP. He’s cash viable no matter where he hits, and he helps you save money for the REALLY fun Yankees at the top of the order.
Other options – Justin Smoak, Josh Bell, Pete Alonso, Yonder Alonso
Catcher values – Gary Sanchez, Yadier Molina, Yasmani Grandal, Wilson Ramos
Whit Merrifield, KC ($4500)
Merrifield has no business being near your cash lineups at this price tag, but he’s a GPP-winning player with his power/speed combo. Lucas Giolito allowed by far the most SBs last season, and Welington Castillo is a below average catcher as far as pop/release times.
Other options – Jose Altuve, Mike Moustakas
Adam Frazier, PIT ($2700)
Frazier is an uninspiring GPP player with almost no power upside, but he’s a heavy contact hitter with a solid BB/K ratio. He should lead off on the road in Cincinnati where he’s getting a park boost, and Tanner Roark has allowed a .332 wOBA and 40% FB rate to LHB. Frazier is a nice floor play for cash, but unlikely to produce the ceiling you need for GPPs.
Other options – Gleyber Torres, Lourdes Gurriel, Josh Harrison, Jonathan Villar
Matt Carpenter, STL ($4300)
Carpenter is a great play today in GPP, although we have a core value play at 3B (see below) for cash. Brewers pitcher Corbin Burnes has flashed reverse split tendencies early on in his career, but Carpenter has a .374 wOBA and .243 ISO against RHP over the past two seasons. The one thing keeping Carpenter’s projections from popping is the fact that lefty sensation Josh Hader is likely available for multiple innings today.
Other options – Alex Bregman, Miguel Andujar, Travis Shaw
Brandon Drury, TOR ($2200)
Drury continues to be a core value in cash which a leadoff spot and an unmoving price tag. Matt Moore pitches to contact (19.5% K rate) and relies on flyballs (39.6% FB rate) to get his outs, which is a dangerous combo. Drury has a career ISO 22 points higher against LHP than against RHP, and the Tigers bullpen also ranked 27th in xFIP last season. Toronto has the second highest IRT (4.7 runs) behind only the Yankees today.
Other options – Jeimer Candelario, Jung Ho Kang
Adalberto Mondesi, KC ($4200)
Mondesi seems like an odd name to say this, but he’s a player I feel super confident paying more than 4k for today. I’ve already mentioned Giolito being miserable against the running game, but he was also obliterated by lefties last season, allowing a .361 wOBA, 14/12% K/BB%, 41% FB rate, and 1.33 HR/9 to them. The sky is the limit for Mondesi who can rack up points with both his bat and his legs, and I want him in my cash today.
Other options – Trea Turner
Paul DeJong, STL ($3000)
DeJong continues to be underpriced hitting third for the Cardinals. He’s shown reverse splits so far in his career (.194 ISO against RHP) and is facing a Brewers pitcher that has allowed 1.13 HR/9 to same-handed pitching so far in his young career as opposing to 0.64 HR/9 to LHB.
Other options – Carlos Correa, Troy Tulowitzki
Aaron Judge, NYY ($5100)
Judge is virtually impossible to squeeze into cash at this price if you want to spend anywhere else at all, but he’s the top player for the top offense of the day which tells you all you need to know. Judge led the Yankees in wOBA against same-handed pitching with a .384 mark, and he has far less strikeout downside than his power counterpart (Stanton). Judge has also began the year with a 48% HHR.
Other options – Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Charlie Blackmon, Lorenzo Cain, Starling Marte, George Springer
Brett Gardner, NYY ($2900)
Gardner hasn’t done much leading off in the first two games this season, but he’s still a cash game building block on FD at his cheap price tag. Bundy was absolutely punished by LHB last season, allowing a .400 wOBA an 1.94 HR/9. Gardner doesn’t have the greatest power upside, but he still has a .173 ISO against RHP the last three years and right field of Yankee Stadium inflates power.
Other options – Yasiel Puig, Jesse Winker, Scott Schebler, Corey Dickerson, Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk, Kevin Pillar, Marcell Ozuna, Dexter Fowler, Avisail GarciaFantasy Baseball