When Chris Archer crapped out yesterday, I knew I was in trouble for not having Kershaw on FanDuel. I managed to sneak a few h2h wins in there but overall not a great night again. We move onward, as they say, to tonight’s seven-game slate and there is a lot of pitching to sift through for such a short dance card.
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Noah Syndergaard, NYM ($11,200)
Syndergaard skills are flat-out hilarious, but the crazy thing is he’s not actually a must on FanDuel thanks to Carlos Martinez being mispriced (see below). If you do decide to pay up for Noah, you’ll get no argument from me as you’re paying for arguably the best pitcher in baseball after Kershaw (and he’s $1700 cheaper than Kershaw was yesterday). The Phillies have a miniscule IRT of 2.8 runs and Syndergaard posted a ridiculous 2.29 FIP and 31.2% K rate last year. He has yet to walk a batter this season and has an elite 57% GB rate thanks to increased velocity and a vicious slider. If ANYTHING can give you pause, he has dealt with some blister issues this season which could always flare up, but Noah’s floor and ceiling are sky high.
Other options – Stephen Strasburg, Danny Duffy, Carlos Martinez (best value)
Carlos Martinez, STL ($9300)
Martinez is a perfectly fine alternative to Syndergaard at almost $2000 cheaper. He gets a negative park shift going to Milwaukee but the Brewers struck out the most against RHP last season and are already striking out the second most against them this year. Martinez is flashing an elite 12.23 K/9 so far this season (despite a high walk rate) and he’s a solid road favorite at -140. I don’t expect a higher raw total than Syndergaard, but you can easily make the argument that he’s a better cash value.
Other options – James Paxton, Aaron Nola, Patrick Corbin
Salvador Perez, KC ($3100)
I’m super intrigued by the Royals tonight who are getting an epic park upgrade going to Texas and facing gas can Andrew Cashner. ZiPS projects a 4.89 ERA and 1.34 HR/9 allowed for Cashner this year based on his horrific 2016 season and he’s flashed absolutely no control so far this year. The Royals have an IRT of 4.7 runs and Perez has been hot out of the gate.
Other options – Jonathan Lucroy
Chris Iannetta, ARI ($2600)
Despite the big time negative park shift going to San Diego, you’ll find some Diamondbacks in this article. They’re facing off against Clayton Richard who has been hammered by RHB in his career and Iannetta has been a great platoon player this far, posting a .356 wOBA and .177 ISO vs LHP over the last three years. A positive lineup spot could increase his value even more.
Other options – Welington Castillo, Yadier Molina, Austin Hedges
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI ($4400)
The D-Backs must not have faced many lefties yet this year because this is the first time Goldy’s name has really popped in my article. Like Iannetta, he’s getting a major park downgrade but there’s no denying the damage he does to LHP. Since the beginning of 2014, Goldy has hammered lefties for a .435 wOBA and .215 ISO and has some speed to add to his upside.
Other options – Joey Votto, Freddie Freeman, Chris Davis
Eric Hosmer, KC ($3100)
Matt Carpenter’s position shift to 1B is intriguing, but I’m on the Royals big time today. Hosmer gets the great matchup against Andrew Cashner I spoke of, and Cashner allowed a .380 wOBA and 1.53 HR/9 to LHB last season. He’s a solid cash play and is affordable if you’re paying all the way up for Syndergaard.
Other options – Matt Carpenter, Mike Napoli, Brandon Moss
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