I began yesterday’s thought process about how we were going to build around Max Scherzer today, but it looks like he’s been pushed back to Sunday with the rainout and Edwin Jackson will start. As a result, we get a slate a lot like last night where there are no aces but rather some “nice” pitchers going in the 9k range (Hill was very good, Carrasco was phenomenal). There don’t look to be any weather issues tonight as of yet, but stick with us in FTA+ live chat and we’ll lead you to the promised land with news and analysis. I’m also on twitter @jac3600.
Carlos Martinez, STL ($9200)
Martinez is the “safe” play at SP and you can get plenty of offense with him in there. The Braves can be a pesky lineup at times but Martinez’s individual skill set is excellent with a 9.59 K/9. He’s a much better pitcher at home and is a -230 favorite with a 3.6 IRTA. There is a cheaper option, but Martinez won’t make you sacrifice much offense.
Other options – Aaron Nola, Jon Lester
Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD ($8200)
If you want to save even more money, Ryu is a perfectly fine cash option and an excellent GPP pivot. Even as the “worst” pitcher on the Dodgers staff, Ryu is a whopping -250 favorite tonight with a slate-low 3.1 IRTA. The Padres rank last in wRC+ against LHP and how have the highest K rate against them again. Ryu’s injury history has cut into his innings, but he’s been tremendous the last two starts with 14 shutout innings and 15 strikeouts.
Other options – Dylan Bundy, Mike Fiers, Sean Manaea, Ian Kennedy, Jeff Hoffman, Steven Matz
TOP PLAY AND VALUE PLAY
Buster Posey, SF ($2600)
Posey is a gift, and frankly it would be silly to pass on him. He’s facing Edwin Jackson and he’s still priced as if Scherzer was the pitcher. Jackson has allowed 2.45 HR/9 this year while posting a 5.31 xFIP, and Posey is getting a park upgrade going to Washington. There are several Giants that can be used today for the same reason, but Posey is the only one I call a 100% lock.
Other options – J.T. Realmuto, Yasmani Grandal, Manny Pina, Cameron Rupp
Eric Hosmer, KC ($3700)
I had Bellinger on the brain originally here, but the Royals have to be considered the premier offense on the slate as they will be getting a park upgrade and will be facing James Shields. The Royals’ IRT of 5.8 runs is the highest on the slate and Shields is literally nothing more than batting practice now with his 6.04 xFIP and 2.44 HR/9 allowed. Royals exposure is a must tonight.
Other options – Paul Goldschmidt, Cody Bellinger, Anthony Rizzo, Matt Carpenter, Freddie Freeman
Eric Thames, MIL ($2600)
Thames launched one into orbit yesterday, and in doing so launched my cash lines into the money where they stayed there for good. His price has dropped even more on FanDuel and he’ll be taking on Scott Feldman (who has been decent this year but may have some rust following his DL stint) and the Reds bullpen ranked 27th in xFIP. This is significant power upside at a cheap price tag.
Other options – Jose Abreu, Mark Reynolds, Yonder Alonso, Tommy Joseph, Rhys Hoskins
Jose Altuve, HOU ($4100)
The Astros lineup has disappointed lately, but Altuve hasn’t (except for last night). Houston has a healthy IRT of 5.4 runs and they’ll face Tyson Ross who just hasn’t been able to get it going at all. He has a pitching slash of 7.52/5.70/5.78 while allowing 1.39 HR/9 and walking an insane 5.57 batters per nine innings. With all the savings elsewhere, Altuve is easily justifiable.
Other options – Whit Merrifield, Robinson Cano, Jonathan Schoop
Daniel Murphy, WAS ($3300)
Murphy is priced about $1000 too cheaply for his skillset, especially against RHP who he’s obliterated for the last two years. Chris Stratton is able to keep the ball in the park but walks far too many batters (5.68 BB/9) and doesn’t miss bats (5.68 K/9). He’s also getting a major park downgrade in Washington and the Giants bullpen is below average.
Other options – D.J. LeMahieu, Rougned Odor, Neil Walker, Joe Panik
Kris Bryant, CHC ($3900)
I wanted Moustakas against Shields here but I just can’t justify $300 more when Moose doesn’t come with an optimal lineup spot. Bryant will be getting a major park upgrade going to Arizona and is facing Patrick Corbin who has been good this year, but far worse at home. He’s also allowed 1.47 HR/9 to RHB over the last three years and Bryant has a .255 ISO against LHP in that span.
Other options – Mike Moustakas, Nolan Arenado, Alex Bregman, Justin Turner, Manny Machado
Travis Shaw, MIL ($3300)
Shaw just remains too cheap on FD. I plan on paying for Bryant here, but if you want someone cheaper Shaw is just fine. The Brew Crew has an IRT of five runs against the Reds and Shaw has a .400 wOBA and .261 ISO against RHP this season.
Other options – Anthony Rendon, Maikel Franco, Jedd Gyorko, Pablo Sandoval, Luis Valbuena
Corey Seager, LAD ($3900)
Seager is a viable spend in all formats. He has a career .394 wOBA and .215 ISO against RHP and will be facing Jhoulys Chacin who has wide platoon splits. Chacin has allowed 1.44 HR/9 to LHB over the last three years and is backed by a bad bullpen.
Other options – Elvis Andrus, Marwin Gonzalez
Zack Cozart, CIN ($3300)
It would be nice if Cozart was a little cheaper, but he’s a perfectly good play at $3300. Brent Suter has been effective for the Brewers but he doesn’t miss bats and allows a lot of hard contact to RHB. Cozart has gone ballistic against LHP this season, posting a .478 wOBA and .326 ISO against them (that, my friends, is Stanton-esque).
Other options – Marcus Semien, Paul DeJong, Trevor Story, Brandon Crawford
Bryce Harper, WAS ($5000)
Harper tops Trout in my rankings tonight, and there are definitely ways to pay all the way up for him in cash (especially if you use Ryu at SP and a couple of cheap Giants hitters in cash). I’ve mentioned Chris Stratton’s struggles, and Harper has elite platoon splits for his career, with a .403 wOBA and .256 ISO against RHP.
Other options – Mike Trout, Giancarlo Stanton, JD Martinez, Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, Michael Conforto, George Springer, AJ Pollock, Adam Duvall, Dexter Fowler, Nomar Mazara, Melky Cabrera
Josh Reddick, HOU ($3100)
Josh Reddick has only a 19% hard hit rate L10 which has dropped his price tag to only $3100. That’s way too cheap for the third hitter in this Astros lineup, especially with the platoon edge against Tyson Ross. Reddick has a .359 wOBA and .218 ISO this season against RHP and is smack in the middle of one of the top offenses of the night.
Other options – Yoenis Cespedes, Curtis Granderson, Billy Hamilton, Ben Zobrist, Ian Happ, Brandon Moss, Domingo Santana, Denard Span, Jarrett Parker, Hunter Pence, Alex Gordon, Joc Pederson, Albert Almora, Carlos Beltran, Hernan Perez