FanDuel and DraftKings DFS Picks | 1/9/19

James Harden driving to the hoop for a layup in Rockets Red

I finally got back on track with DraftKings last night to end my six-day losing streak, and extended my winning streaks on FanDuel and Yahoo to seven days and four days, respectively. Tonight we have a jam-packed ten-game Wednesday slate, and there are some key injuries we have to really wait for. I’m assuming Devin Booker to still be out (will update if he’s playing), and the we also have to see if the Nets will be playing super thin again, because their matchup with the Hawks is prime. It’ll be all hands on deck in chat tonight, an follow me on twitter @jac3600.

FANDUEL TOP POINT GUARD

Ben Simmons, PHI ($9300)

Philly will be playing the second game of a home-and-home with the Wizards after torching them in Philly last night. You have to hope the blowout risk will be a little less in Washington tonight, and Simmons’ matchup is amazing. The Wizards are eighth in pace, 27th in overall team defense, and 28th against guards, and Simmons was able to drop 43.5 FD points on them last night in only 27 minutes of play. If JJ Redick sits again, that gives all the Sixers starting a minor usage boost.

Other options – Damian Lillard, Kyrie Irving

Mid-tier options – Kris Dunn, Lonzo Ball, Elfrid Payton, Eric Bledsoe

FANDUEL TOP SHOOTING GUARD

James Harden, HOU ($12,600)

A couple of SLIGHTLY down games for Harden has caused his price to come down a few hundred dollars on FanDuel, and there’s no way you’re fading him this evening. People are often wary of the matchup with Milwaukee, but this one actually suits Harden to a tee. Yes, the Bucks are fifth in overall team defense and ninth against guards, but they’re also fifth in pace and allow the most 3PA in the league. In addition, games involving the Bucks have the most possessions and the most points scored this year. Harden has a 46.9% usage rate and a 54.1% assist rate with Paul and Gordon off the court, and now we’re giving him extra touches? Yes, please.

Other options – Bradley Beal, DeMar DeRozan, Luka Doncic, Jrue Holiday

Mid-tier options – Donovan Mitchell, Jimmy Butler, D’Angelo Russell, CJ McCollum

DRAFTKINGS TOP/MID GUARDS

Harden ($12,200) is even more of a lock on DK than he is on FanDuel as his price is still far too low there. He should be in 100% of your cash games and I’d even take an overweight approach in GPPs. Bradley Beal ($8900) is also a lot better play on DK where his price tag is depressed compared to his 10k FD price. Beal has a 32% UR and 29% AR with Wall gone, and now it looks like Otto Porter may be back on the sidelines with an injured thumb. Beal needs his full minutes to hit value, but he should get that with a home game tonight. The mid tier offers two wonderful plays on DK with D’Angelo Russell ($7600) and Donovan Mitchell ($7300). Russell is a good play anyway against the Hawks who have allowed a whopping 52 FD PPG to opposing PGs this season, and he can only get better if some of the Nets who missed last game sit out again. Mitchell will be running the point for Utah with both Ricky Rubio and Dante Exum out for the foreseeable future, and he had a 31% UR and 28% AR in this scenario last year. Jrue Holiday ($7700) also strikes me as a little too cheap against the lousy Cavs defense.

VALUE GUARDS

If Devin Booker sits again (which I think he will), we’re playing DeAnthony Melton ($4200/$4300) again as his price hasn’t moved on either sits (actually, it even dropped a bit on FD). Dallas is 17th against PGs this year, and Melton stuffed the stat sheet night against Sacramento. Don’t look for the same upside as he showed with his defensive stats (4 steals, 2 blocks), but Melton is an easy play at his price. If the Nets sit the same players as last game, Spencer Dinwiddie ($6200/$6400) and Shabazz Napier ($4700/$4000) would be in line for major minutes and usage against a Hawks team that is the best attack point in the NBA for opposing guards. They’re usable in all formats, and it should be mentioned that the Nets are JUST behind the Pelicans for the highest team total of the night (118). A final key value tonight is Raul Neto, but he’s pretty site specific. FanDuel has aggressively priced him up to $5900 after he logged 29 minutes last game with Rubio and Exum out, and I’d consider him a nonplay on that site, even in GPPs. On DK however, his price remains at a lovely $4300, where you can play him in all formats with the expectation he’ll start and play 30+ minutes.

Other options – Elfrid Payton, Khris Middleton, Reggie Jackson, Bruce Brown, Reggie Bullock, Josh Hart, Jordan Clarkson, Alec Burks, Collin Sexton

FANDUEL TOP SMALL FORWARD

Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL ($11,800)

Giannis always seems to be playing on the same days as Harden and Anthony Davis, so I haven’t considered him a cash play in quite awhile and tonight is really no different. The matchup is largely neutral against Houston and Milwaukee is getting a pace downgrade, but Giannis ranks sixth in the NBA in usage and is second in PER (behind only Davis). He has the upside to be the highest scorer on any night, but the only way you’re fitting him in cash is if you fade Harden, which just isn’t a smart move tonight. Consider Giannis an elite GPP option.

Other options – None

Mid-tier options – Brandon Ingram, TJ Warren, Trevor Ariza

DRAFTKINGS TOP POWER FORWARD

Anthony Davis, NO ($12,500)

AD needed only 28 minutes last game to put up 53.5 FD points on the Cavs, and now he gets the pleasure again. Cleveland ranks 25th in overall team defense and 20th in rebounding rate, and losing Larry Nance isn’t going to help that ranking at all. AD’s biggest enemy is himself, so if he can keep himself out of the locker room he has the upside for 80+ FPS. Still, Harden comes first in cash.

Other options – Blake Griffin

Mid-tier options – John Collins, Kyle Kuzma, Damontas Sabonis, LaMarcus Aldridge

DRAFTKINGS TOP/MID FORWARDS

AD and Giannis should be treated the same way on DK, as secondary elite GPP options to Harden. I will definitely have a tournament lineup with both of them, which worked out beautifully on Monday. John Collins remains too cheap on DK at $7200 where he can be used in cash as opposed to being a GPP-only option on FD. The Nets allow 16% more rebounding than the rest of the league, and Collins has a 23% UR and an elite 21% RR since becoming the regular starter. Blake Griffin ($9000) is also someone you’re going to really want to consider on DK. He’s played 38 MPG the last three and hasn’t been under 5X value in any game so far in 2019. The Lakers rank fourth against opposing PFs but they also rank third in pace and give up the fourth most FGs between 15 and 18 feet (where Griff like to spend a lot of time). He’s a GPP play for me as of now, but I don’t argue spending for him in cash if you can fit him.

VALUE FORWARDS

Philadelphia ranks fifth against SFs and fourth in rebounding rate, but you’re still going to want to give a lot of thought to playing Trevor Ariza and Jeff Green if Otto Porter does indeed sit. Ariza was playing 39.4 MPG without Porter before and yesterday marked the first time Green had been under 30 minutes since 12/26 when he got banged up. Kelly Oubre ($3700/$3800) is likely going to be a popular play tonight if Booker sits again. He put up 48 FD points last night in 30 minutes off the bench, and would continue to lead that second unit in usage if Phoenix’s starting lineup remains the same. Oubre is especially valuable on FD where you can drop his score if he busts. Josh Jackson ($4800/$5200) seems equally important even though the matchup is much worse (Dallas is fifth against forwards). Jackson played 31 minutes yesterday and averaged a fantasy point per minute. Be wary on DK where his price has gotten a little uncomfortable, but he’s still got loads of room for value on FD. Evan Turner ($4600/$3900) is worth a look as well with Maurice Harkless out again. Turner played a disappointing 22 minutes last game against the Knicks, but the matchup is good for his price with the Bulls ranking 21st in overall defensive efficiency while allowing the fourth most steals per game. Turner’s price tag is better on DK.

Other options – Jayson Tatum, Joe Ingles, Jae Crowder, Derrick Favors, Jaren Jackson, Reggie Bullock, Cedi Osman, Rodions Kurucs

FANDUEL TOP CENTER

Joel Embiid, PHI ($10,800)

Embiid let me down yesterday as the blowout limited him to just 23 minutes. He still managed to put up 38 points and remains an elite DFS play. He has the same matchup against the Wizards who are 25th against centers and dead last in rebounding rate, which makes him someone I will heavily use in GPPs. His cash priority isn’t as high tonight with Harden and AD both ahead of him, but no one at FTA will fight you if you jam him in.

Other options – Andre Drummond, Clint Capela, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert, Nikola Vucevic

Mid-tier options – DeAndre Ayton, DeAndre Jordan, Marc Gasol

DRAFTKINGS TOP C’s

The story is the same with Embiid here where he has the same price tag as FD ($10,800), but let’s look at some other centers who seem mispriced. We’ll start with Drummond who is consistently too cheap on DK. He’s $8600 which leaves tons of room for upside against a Lakers squad that is third in pace and 23rd against centers. There are only three games this year where Drummond hasn’t logged a double-double, and he’s averaged 37 MPG over the last three. He’s a strong cash play on DK. Clint Capela ($7500) and Rudy Gobert ($7800) are also too cheap on DK and can be used in any format. Gobert in particular has eight double-doubles in his last 11 games and saw his usage go up to almost 19% the last time Rubio was out.

VALUE CENTERS

There are a couple of site-specific plays you want to look at for value at the C position. On DK, Marc Gasol is BONKERS cheap at $6500. This is a price tag he’s hit value at over 70% of the time, and there’s really no reason he shouldn’t again with a full complement of minutes. The Spurs rank second against centers, but Gasol has assist upside to go along with his 22.7% usage. On FD, the value is Jarrett Allen ($5800), especially if the Nets are short-handed again. The Hawks rank dead last in overall team defense, 21st against centers, and 19th in rebounding rate. Allen’s minutes can be a hassle sometimes, but keep in mind he’s averaging 1.07 FPPM and this matchup can boost that number significantly.

Other options – JaVale McGee, DeWayne Dedmon, Alex Len, Jakob Poeltl

Fantasy Basketball

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