FanDuel and DraftKings DFS NBA Picks | 3/4/19


I hit big with the afternoon games, but sadly my nine-game winning streak came to an end on the night slate thanks to duds from Terrence Ross and Jeff Green, plus another less-than-stellar Westbrook performance. The only thing to do is start another streak tonight, and I expect all my FTA buds to be ready to roll with me in chat. I’m also on twitter @jac3600. Good luck!

FANDUEL TOP POINT GUARD

Rajon Rondo, LAL ($6100)

We’re dipping right down the pricing chart on FD to find not only the top play but the top value as well. To say the Lakers are in “do-or-die” mode is an understatement, as they are getting dangerously close to missing the playoffs. This game is even more important between the Lakers and Clippers as the winner will have the tiebreaker over the other for playoff time, and the game environment is elite (four-point spread, 238 O/U). Expect major minutes and a bounceback game from Rondo here, as the Clippers are ninth in pace (Lakers are fourth) and 21st in overall team defense. You are going to want to hammer this game even though there are other teams in good spots, and the Lakers have the second highest implied total at a whopping 121 points.

Other options – Trae Young (amazing GPP as people will abandon him at this price tag), DeAaron Fox

Mid-tier options – Eric Bledsoe, Ricky Rubio

FANDUEL TOP SHOOTING GUARD

Luka Doncic, DAL ($9800)

As long as Doncic remains under 10k, he continues to be undepriced (moreso on DK) and you can roll him in all formats. LeBron is the top stud to target tonight, but looser pricing on FD makes it possible to fit both. The 19-year sensation has a 32% UR and almost a 35% AR since Dallas’ trades, and Brooklyn has fallen all the way to 25th in overall team defense while allowing the fourth most APG over the last ten.

Other options – Donovan Mitchell, D’Angelo Russell

Mid-tier options – Buddy Hield, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Lou Williams

DRAFTKINGS TOP/MID GUARDS

Doncic ($9100) is an incredible value on DK at his price tag, and I’m going to make every effort to roster him and LeBron together. As long as some of the Hawks and Heat values come to fruition tonight, it’s going to be very doable also. Luka has added value on DK with the double- and triple-double bonuses. D’Angelo Russell’s game logs are scary to roster in cash, but he’s an elite GPP option at a falling price tag (only $8000 now). Russell is prone to duds due to poor shooting and random disappearing acts on defense, but his rates are holding strong at a 31% UR and 39% AR. Dallas has fallen to 27th in overall team defense and 24th against PGs. A couple of solid mid-tier options that are viable in all formats are Brandon Ingram ($6600) and Lou Williams ($6800). They will be participating in the featured game tonight, and both have an enhanced floor/ceiling combo with the high expected pace.

VALUE GUARDS

I already covered him in the top-play section, but Rondo ($6100/$5500) is also a core play on DK at an even cheaper price tag, and he still the ability to rack up triple-doubles nightly. In the same game, give Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($4300/$3900) a look. He’s played 29 and 32 minutes the last two games and the price tag doesn’t match that, especially against a stumbling Lakers team that ranks fourth in pace, 28th in overall team defense, 21st against PGs, and has the third highest TO rate. SGA’s minutes are not safe at all, but the price tag is just too cheap for all the positives going for him tonight. If the same Hawks players are out tonight, Kent Bazemore ($4400/$4900) will once again be a core play for me on FD, and a solid play on DK as well. He disappointed in a good matchup against Chicago yesterday, but he still managed to JUST eke out value on FD in 27 minutes. His price tag hasn’t moved, and the Heat rank 26th against SGs while allowing the fifth most steals per game. Dwyane Wade ($6200/$5000) is playable on FD at his price tag, but that DK tag is SUPER enticing in all formats against a Hawks team that ranks last against guards and also allowed the second most bench points.

Other options – Patrick Beverley, Derrick White, Jalen Brunson, Dwyane Wade, Dion Waiters, Kevin Huerter

FANDUEL TOP SMALL FORWARD

LeBron James, LAL ($12,400)

LeBron is the priority spend on this slate. I mentioned the importance of every game for the Lakers now, with this one even carrying a little more weight. This means LeBron will play almost the whole game, as evidenced by the fact that he’s played 39.6 MPG over the last five while averaging almost a triple-double in that span. The Clippers are 27th against opposing SFs and lack anyone remotely capable of stopping him. Make sure he’s the first name in your cash lineups, and honestly the lack of having a lot of studs on this slate makes it tough for me to fade him in GPPs as well.

Other options – Giannis Antetokounmpo

Mid-tier options – Brandon Ingram, Josh Richardson, Justise Winslow

FANDUEL TOP POWER FORWARD

LaMarcus Aldridge, SA ($8600)

There’s so much value at PF that there’s no need to go up this high, but I love Aldridge in GPPs. Denver’s pace is way up lately and they’ve also allowed the third most points in the paint over the last ten games despite ranking first in rebounding rate. LMA has cleared 40 FD points in three straight games and should have a much easier matchup with Jakob Poeltl seemingly starting at C alongside him (leaving Aldridge to deal with the older, slower Millsap).

Other options – Julius Randle

Mid-tier options – Montrezl Harrell, Kyle Kuzma, Derrick Favors

DRAFTKINGS TOP/MID FORWARDS

LeBron’s price is ridiculous on DK at $11,200. He will be in 100% of my lineups over there. Remember also that Luka Doncic ($9100) is F eligible which could help you with overall lineup construction. The rest of the DK build looks like we’re going cheaper at the F position, but I do want to point out Buddy Hield ($7000). We haven’t really mentioned the Kings yet, but they actually have the highest implied total on the slate at 122 points against the Knicks who are 23rd against SGs, 22nd overall, and allow the highest 3PT% in the league. There is blowout risk as Sacramento is favored by 11 points, but they (like the Lakers) are also fighting for their playoff lives which could mean the starters get extended a bit.

VALUE FORWARDS

As long as Hassan Whiteside remains out for the Heat, you’re going to want multiple forward values from that team. Kelly Olynyk ($5600/$5300) and Bam Adebayo ($5500/$5600) lead the way as each has been playing 30+ minutes and crushing value in every game Whiteside has missed. Tonight they get a thinned out Hawks frontcourt, and Atlanta ranks first in pace, 23rd in overall defense, dead last against centers, and allows the most blocks per 48 minutes. You need one of these guys, and both would be just fine as well. From the small forward perspective, you’re also looking at the Heat for the best value, with Josh Richardson ($6900/$6100) and Justise Winslow ($6500/$5700) leading the charge. Both are much better values on DK, but are viable on all sites with their usage rates being over 22% and assist rates being over 18%. The Hawks also allow the second most assists per game and have a high TO rate. On FD, Derrick White ($3800) would also work as a burner play. Another play that will be further discussed in the center section is Dwight Powell, but he’s also an excellent option on FD at $6300.

Other options – Harrison Barnes, Nikola Mirotic, Jae Crowder, Joe Harris, Noah Vonleh, Dirk Nowitzki, Pat Connaughton

FANDUEL TOP CENTER

Mitchell Robinson, NY ($7100)

This play could be tricky since the Knicks and Kings don’t tip off till 10 EST, and with no late swap we may not yet have the status of DeAndre Jordan (who Robinson needs to be out to unlock full value). He logged a double-double while blocking four more shots yesterday en route for 43.1 FD points in only 22 minutes of play (fouls plagued him, which is going to be his risk every game). If Jordan is out again, Robinson should get all the run he can handle, and the Kings rank second in pace, 29th against centers, 24th in rebounding rate, and allow the third most blocks per 48 minutes. Robinson checks all the boxes for this one. He just needs to keep his hands to himself.

Other options – Nikola Jokic

Mid-tier options – Brook Lopez, Willie Cauley-Stein

DRAFTKINGS TOP/MID CENTERS

It’s amazing how dynamically different the center position is on DK, but these are things you have to look for when shopping across multiple sites. The pricing difference on Rudy Gobert is eye popping. He’s virtually unplayable on FD at $10,300 but is $7900 on DK where he’s one of the top values at the position, if not the top one (I like Dwight Powell, but more on him later). Gobert and the Jazz are getting a huge pace boost against New Orleans (Pels rank fifth) and their interior is just not the same with Anthony Davis limited or absent every evening. The aforementioned Robinson is also way too cheap on DK at $6400, although you can argue he holds more value on FD where the blocks are weighted so much heavier. Don’t discount Nikola Jokic ($10,300) either, although he’s not fitting my cash plans with LeBron and Doncic being the spend priorities for me. Jokic has triple-double upside every night, and the Spurs have fallen to 29th in overall team defense and 17th against centers.

VALUE CENTERS

I mentioned Dwight Powell already in the PF section for FD, but he’s a core play for me at center on DK at only $5200, which he’s been for the last few games. Powell has started the last three games for the Mavs and played 36, 37, and 31 minutes. In that span, he’s averaged a 15-10 double-double with 2.5 steals per game as well. Tonight he gets the dream matchup against the Nets who have allowed 10% more scoring and 12% more rebounding than the league average to centers, and Powell is simply too cheap. The other key situation for value is the Hawks’ frontcourt. With Collins, Spellman, and Prince out yesterday, Alex Len drew the start and posted 28 points and 9 boards in 26 minutes after going the bonkers in the 4OT game before that. If he has the same situation tonight, Len ($3700/$4000) is tough to ignore, and he’d for sure be a core play on FD where his score can be dropped if he’s limited and/or in foul trouble. The Heat rank seventh against centers and sixth in rebounding rate, but that can be attributed almost solely to Whiteside, who remains questionable for this one as well. Willie Cauley-Stein ($6100/$5800) also needs to be considered with Marvin Bagley on the shelf again. He’s played 32 and 31 minutes the last two, and even if you’re conservative tonight with 28 minutes, he should still blow away his price tag against the Knicks who rank 26th in rebounding rate and 22nd in overall team defense.

Other options – Jakob Poeltl, Ivica Zubac, JaVale McGee, Mason Plumlee

Fantasy Basketball

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