If you can tear your eyes away from March Madness tonight, we have six NBA games on tap for the evening. Teague, Rose, and Covington have been officially shut down for the year, so Towns’ usage is going to be bonkers till the very end. I will be on chat tonight discussing all the plays, and follow me on twitter @jac3600. Get your brackets ready!
FANDUEL TOP POINT GUARD
Kemba Walker, CHA ($9300)
Things are starting to look bleak for Charlotte now as they’ve fallen 4.5 games out of the playoff hunt, but they’re not eliminated yet so Kemba should still get full run. Minnesota is ranked 25th overall and 25th against PGs the last ten games, and the absence of Teague and Rose won’t help that ranking. Josh Okogie’s perimeter defense is a concern, but Kemba has a 31% UR and 33% AR over the last ten. I have other priorities in cash, but Kemba is elite in GPPs.
Other options – Stephen Curry (if Durant and Cousins both out), DeAaron Fox
Mid-tier options – Trae Young, Jamal Murray, Ricky Rubio
FANDUEL TOP SHOOTING GUARD
Luka Doncic, DAL ($10,000)
Luka on the second game of a b2b is risky given that he’s been battling knee issues lately, but he’s got a 33% UR and 28% AR in the second half to go along with a 1.34 FPPM average. Sacramento ranks second in pace and is 23rd against opposing PGs over the last ten games. Like Kemba, Doncic is better suited for tournaments given the priority of other big spends.
Other options – Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, Donovan Mitchell
Mid-tier options – Buddy Hield, Jeremy Lamb, Andrew Wiggins
DRAFTKINGS TOP/MID GUARDS
Kemba Walker ($8100) and Luka Doncic ($8900) are a lot more palatable for cash on DK given the depressed price tags, and are strong targets there. Bradley Beal ($9200) is also massively underpriced for a player who has given first-round value this season. The risk with him is the bottom could fall out of his minutes anytime as Washington fell to 5.5 games out of eighth place last night. Trevor Ariza’s likely absence helps. DeAaron Fox ($7300) is a strong mid-tier play against who is 28th in overall team defense the last ten games. Sacramento has the highest implied total at 119 points.
Tyus Jones ($5300/$5400) is perfectly fine to use with Teague and Rose shut down for the year. He finally cleared 30 minutes last game and there’s really no reason that shouldn’t continue tonight. The game environment isn’t the best, but Charlotte is 26th in team defense the last ten games. DeAnthony Melton ($3600/$3900) is also an OK punt on this slate even if you think newly-signed Jimmer Fredette is actually a factor in this one (and let’s be honest, it’s the Suns so why wouldn’t you?). Detroit is ranked 27th against PGs on the season, and Melton’s 0.86 FPPM is fine for such a low price. Kelly Oubre has also been ruled out for the rest of the year, so Melton’s value is solidified a bit more. Both these values are better on FD.
Other options – Jalen Brunson, Reggie Jackson, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Monte Morris
FANDUEL TOP SMALL FORWARD
Kevin Durant, GS ($9300)
Apparently one of Durant’s best friends died this morning, so there’s a chance he doesn’t even play. If Cousins sits again and Durant does go, he gets back the 4.5% usage rate that Cousins robbed him of this season, but this a GPP-only option. If both KD and Cousins sit, the other Warriors start to look mighty nice.
Other options – None
Mid-tier options – Jabari Parker
FANDUEL TOP POWER FORWARD
Blake Griffin, DET ($8400)
Griffin has been underwhelming lately, but he was rested last game and only played 32 minutes the two games before. Tonight he gets the Suns who are fast-paced, rank 26th against opposing frontcourts, and are dead last in rebounding rate. Griffin loves to run and still has career highs this year in usage (29%) and assist rate (23%).
Other options – None
Mid-tier options – Paul Millsap, Dwight Powell, Marvin Bagley, Damontas Sabonis
DRAFTKINGS TOP/MID FORWARDS
Griffin ($7800) is dirt cheap on DK and it’s very hard to pass on someone of his caliber at that price tag, especially against the Suns. After that, I’d look to find value in the forward pool, and pay up for Towns and some guards. Kevin Durant ($9100) is GPP-viable if Cousins sits, and Buddy Hield ($7000) is also a fun GPP option for a Kings team with the highest implied total.
With Trevor Ariza unlikely to play for Washington, they’re a great place to start looking for value on this slate. Troy Brown ($3500/$3100) is the core value that should be in all your lineups tonight. He’s gotten 29 and 30 minutes the last two games for the fading Wizards, and we should see at least that tonight. For the minimum price, he’s a must play, and Denver has ranked 21st against opposing wings the last ten games. Jabari Parker, Bobby Portis, and Jeff Green are all viable in any format as well if you want to pay a little more for the same situation. Around the rest of the league, Kelly Oubre being ruled out for the year should solidify the minutes of Mikal Bridges ($4900/$4300) and Josh Jackson ($5400/$4800). Your preference of the two depends on your strategy for cash. Bridges’ minutes are solidified in the high 30s but he doesn’t have the rates or the per-minute upside of Jackson (even though Jackson might see 6-7 minutes less than Bridges). I prefer Jackson’ total package in cash.
Other options – Bojan Bogdanovic, Nicolas Batum, Will Barton, Marvin Williams, Frank Kaminsky, Dario Saric
FANDUEL TOP CENTER
Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN ($11,500)
I have to say – the fact that Nikola Jokic is $1400 cheaper and facing the Wizards makes this tougher than you’d think, but I’m all over Towns tonight. We no longer have to worry about Teague, Rose, or Covington eating into Towns’ monstrous rates, and he’s averaging 1.73 FPPM since they’ve been out. Charlotte is 27th against centers and 22nd in rebounding rate, and Cody Zeller is out (and he’s the only one remotely capable of disrupting Towns.
Other options – Nikola Jokic, Andre Drummond, Rudy Gobert
Mid-tier options – Myles Turner, DeAndre Ayton
Mason Plumlee ($4700/$4200) is pretty much locked into minutes in the low 20s which is tough, but the matchup against Washington can’t get much better and Plumdog Millionaire is sitting at 1.11 FPPM this year. DeMarcus Cousins is uniquely cheap on DK at $6800 and is playable in any format at that price even against Indiana. The Pacers’ defense has actually dipped the last ten games, and Cousins could gain a big boost to his rates if Kevin Durant were to sit.
Other options – Dewayne Dedmon, Willie Cauley-Stein, Bismack BiyomboFantasy Basketball