FanDuel and DraftKings DFS NBA Picks | 3/2/19

Russell Westbrook

Kept the winning rolling right along thanks to a key play of Kawhi Leonard along with chalky Trae Young and his 4OT masterpiece. Those two teams play again tomorrow, so the sites better get to hiking their prices up more. Tonight we have an eight-game slate, and injury situations are making it look pretty straightforward so far (it’s another Westbrook lock night). I’ll be back in chat trying to make it eight straight, and follow me on twitter @jac3600.

FANDUEL TOP POINT GUARD

Russell Westbrook, OKC ($11,700)

Westbrook is a core play once again on all sites, and he really needs to be the first name you enter. With Paul George off the court, Westy has a 35% UR, 18% RR, and 47% AR and he easily recorded another triple-double last time out. The Spurs have fallen all the way to last in defensive efficiency against PGs, unseating the Cavs after a five-month run at the bottom, and OKC has averaged 121.7 PPG over the last ten contests. Push the lock button, even in GPP.

Other options – Stephen Curry, Ben Simmons

Mid-tier options – Mike Conley, Jamal Murray, Darren Collison

FANDUEL TOP SHOOTING GUARD

Luka Doncic, DAL ($9700)

Luka has continued his torrid rookie season since returning from a minor injury, and there is no way he should be under 10k at this point. Since the trade deadline, Doncic has as 31% UR and 36% AR, and Memphis has fallen all the way to 20th in overall team defense despite still ranking dead last in pace factor. Doncic is not a must by any means with Westbrook and LeBron in such good spots, but he’s a fine consolation prize on FD if you can’t fit both of them.

Other options – Devin Booker, Jimmy Butler, DeMar DeRozan

Mid-tier options – Khris Middleton (if Giannis limited in any way)

DRAFTKINGS TOP/MID GUARDS

Westbrook ($11,500) is a lock on DK, plain and simple. He’s cheaper there than on FD and gets all the bonuses working in his favor. I won’t even have a GPP that doesn’t include him. I’m also incredibly intrigued by the Philly guards again tonight. The O/U o the PHI/GS is 236 with only a six-point spread, and Ben Simmons ($8500) and Jimmy Butler ($7300) are both underpriced given the significant boosts they get with Embiid off the court. The wrinkle here is Tobias Harris, who has somehow become the main beneficiary during Embiid’s recent injury, but there are more than enough points to go around for all of them in such a high-octane atmosphere. On the other side of the ball, Stephen Curry ($9100) is playable in all formats as Philly has allowed the most APG over the last 15 games while also allowing the most points in the paint in that span. Bump him up even more if Klay Thompson (GTD) sits this one out. Finally, don’t discount Devin Booker ($8200). Phoenix is tough to gauge, but Booker’s rates have held at a 29% UR and 32% AR, and the Lakers are fourth in pace, 28th in overall team defense, and last against SGs.

VALUE GUARDS

It’s Rondo chalk night again, and I wouldn’t pass it up in cash with his price static on all sites. Rondo ($5600/$5300) has started the last two games and played 37 and 39 minutes, and he’s easily surpassed 40 FPS in those games. Tonight he takes on Phoenix who is dead last in overall team defense and 25th against PGs. The Lakers have the second highest team total of the night and need this game after blowing it against the Bucks last night. The other chalk guard you can’t pass up is Dennis Schroder ($5000/$5100). With Paul George off the court, Schroder’s usage rate climbs to almost 28%, which makes him FAR too cheap. The Spurs have stopped defending guards altogether, ranking last against PGs and 27th against SGs, and they’ve also allowed the sixth most bench points. Don’t let either of these values pass you by tonight.

Other options – Goran Dragic, Tyler Johnson, Tim Hardaway, Delon Wright, Wesley Matthews, Andre Iguodala (if Klay sits), Malik Beasley

FANDUEL TOP SMALL FORWARD

LeBron James, LAL ($12,300)

Playoff LeBron seems to be in full effect, and it’s scary to think what he might do to a nonexistent defense like the Suns tonight (30th in team defense, 28th in points allowed, 25th against SFs). LeBron has averaged over 60 FPPG since returning from his injury, and he is a top-two overall play tonight. I just can’t justify him as the top overall option with Westbrook cheaper on all sites, but I’ll make every effort to fit both on FD.

Other options – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant

Mid-tier options – Kelly Oubre, Brandon Ingram, Josh Richardson

FANDUEL TOP POWER FORWARD

Julius Randle, NO ($9000)

Randle’s price tag is super annoying, but Anthony Davis is sitting today which makes the expected production easily catch up with the rising price tag. With Davis off the court, Randle has a 29% UR, 13% RR, and 16% AR while averaging 1.32 FPPM, and Denver has ranked 25th in overall team defense the last ten games. With Jahlil Okafor likely having his hands full of Jokic, Randle is free to exploit the slower, older, Millsap. Still, Randle looks like a GPP-only play with the priority on the TOP plays.

Other options – Tobias Harris, LaMarcus Aldridge

Mid-tier options – Kyle Kuzma, Thaddeus Young

DRAFTKINGS TOP/MID FORWARDS

It doesn’t seem realistic to fit both Westbrook and LeBron ($11,400) into one lineup on DK, but you can try. LeBron is also underpriced on DK and the fact that he’s averaged JUST under a triple-double since coming back from injury gives him added boosts. Remember also that Luka Doncic ($9600) is both G and F eligible on DK and is ridiculously still under 10k. Kevin Durant ($9200) has predictably taken a hit from DeMarcus Cousins’ arrival, but the price is baked into that and he gets a 3% usage boost back if Klay Thompson sits. Philly is 19th against opposing forwards. Julius Randle ($8000) also looks like a much better on DK, as does LaMarcus Aldridge ($7700). The Thunder will take a huge hit defensively with Paul George off the court, and OKC has ranked 27th against both PFs and centers over the last ten games.

VALUE FORWARDS

I really hope Whiteside sits, because it would make the value forwards easy on both sites. Bam Adebayo ($5200/$5200) and Kelly Olynyk ($5400/$5100) are both easy fits with the expectation they’ll continue to play 30+ minutes, and both have seen their usage and rebound rates up over 5% the last three games. Brooklyn allows 12% more rebounding to the center position than any other team, and Bam also averages 2.6 blocks per 36 minutes. He’s the top value, closely followed by Kelly O. Draymond Green ($6100/$5800) is also way too cheap on either site. His floor is super scary these days with Cousins hogging the frontcourt, but Dray still has a 13% UR, 11% RR, and 25% AR the last ten games. His floor would rise nicely if Klay were to sit, and Philly will offer little resistance inside with no Embiid.

Other options – Justise Winslow, JJ Redick, Bojan Bogdanovic, Kenrich Williams, Chieck Diallo, Dwight Powell, Jerami Grant

FANDUEL TOP CENTER

DeMarcus Cousins, GS ($8500)

I admit this is tough tonight, because Nikola Jokic is lurking to rival Westbrook and LeBron for supremacy tonight, but on FD I’m calling Cousins JUST a bit better of a play from a per-dollar perspective. The 76ers have allowed by FAR the most points in the paint without Embiid, and with Boban out too there is absolutely nobody to slow down Cousins. He has to share, of course, but Cousins is rocking 1.44 FPPM as a Warrior and has no minutes limit. Imagine last year’s Cousins being $8500. What would you do?

Other options – Nikola Jokic, Rudy Gobert

Mid-tier options – DeAndre Ayton, Myles Turner, Steven Adams

DRAFTKINGS TOP/MID CENTERS

Now on DK, we have a different story. While Cousins ($8200) checks all the same boxes on DK, Nikola Jokic ($10,200) is arguably a better value than even LeBron at his price tag. Jokic has a 28% UR, 19% RR, and 34% AR (he’s a CENTER, for goodness sake) and the Pelicans rank fifth in pace and 19th against centers. Denver has the highest implied team total at 123.5 points, but keep in mind there is blowout risk (DEN is favored by 13) and Anthony Davis sitting won’t help that number at all. It’s a tough call, but I’m still more than willing to use Jokic in cash at a price tag that’s far too cheap for his skillset and 1.52 FPPM. In the mid-tier, DeAndre Ayton ($7100) looks like a solid play in all formats as well. He plays the same minutes regardless of score as the Suns are committed to developing him, and Ayton has a 20% UR and 18% RR in his rookie season. The Lakers rank 28th in overall team defense and 25th against centers while also running at the fourth fastest pace. Phoenix, believe it or not, has the fourth highest team total of the night.

VALUE CENTERS

Dwight Powell ($5200) is a DK-specific play that can be used in all formats. Memphis is not the same defensively without Marc Gasol underneath, and Powell has now played 36 and 37 minutes the last two games. His price has caught up on FD, but not even close on DK. On both sites Jahlil Okafor ($4300/$3600) can be used as a punt, but he has more value on FD where his score can be dropped. Locking horns with Jokic is no easy feat, but Denver has allowed the third most points in the paint over the last five games, and Okafor played 22 minutes the last time Davis sat. His price is worthy of a GPP punt on DK, but stay away in cash with absolutely no minutes floor.

Other options – Brook Lopez, Kyle O’Quinn, Mason Plumlee

Fantasy Basketball

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