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Last night’s luck was possibly the worst I’ve ever had as a DFS player, as all the cheap plays came through, only to be derailed by awful games from both Doncic and GIANNIS, of all people. Tonight we look to get back on track with six games, highlighted by the GS/HOU (which won’t have Durant). There are other studs to roster as well, so let’s delve into the slate, and make sure to follow me on twitter @jac3600.
FANDUEL TOP POINT GUARD
Stephen Curry, GS ($9200)
Passing on Westbrook against the Nets is tough, but Curry is $2500 cheaper and will be playing without Kevin Durant. With Durant off the court, Curry leads the team with a whopping 39.5% usage rate (although it should be pointed out that Cousins wasn’t really a part of that either). It’s enough to lock him in as a core play for me this evening in a game that has a 3.5-point spread and an O/U of 231, and Houston ranks 19th against opposing PGs over the last ten games. Curry is also averaging over 1.5 FPPM without KD on the floor, which leaves room for his ceiling at this price tag.
Other options – Russell Westbrook, Mike Conley, Chris Paul
Mid-tier options – Tomas Satoransky
FANDUEL TOP SHOOTING GUARD
James Harden, HOU ($12,200)
There are other big names I think you prioritize over Harden tonight at cheaper price tags, but the Beard is an elite GPP option (and playable in cash if more values open up). Over his last ten games, Harden has posted a 39% usage rate which is close to where it was when Chris Paul was sitting, and this is a huge home game for the Rockets who have the second highest implied total at 118 points. Harden watched the last HOU/GS game from the bench, so you can bet he’s itching to put it all out there in this one.
Other options – Bradley Beal, Donovan Mitchell, Devin Booker
Mid-tier options – Klay Thompson, D’Angelo Russell
DRAFTKINGS TOP/MID GUARDS
Curry ($9300) rates as the best per-dollar guard on DK as well at a price well under 10k. However, James Harden ($11,200) is MUCH cheaper over here, and you have to give him serious consideration in cash at a price tag that’s at least $1000 too cheap for his usage being where it is. Let’s also not overlook Westbrook ($11,000) in GPPs against a Nets team that has allowed the third most FPPG to opposing PGs over the last ten games, and the Thunder has the highest implied total at 119.5 points.
After those big three, there are a couple of mid-tier plays that really pop. The first is Chris Paul, whose price of $6900 just seems blatantly incorrect. His usage of 21% isn’t mind-blowing (having Harden as a teammate will do that), but his 38% assist rate is among the best in the league and Golden State has ranked 26th against PGs over the last ten games. You can’t ever predict a high-scoring game for Paul with Harden averaging just over 28 shots per game, but the rest of the stats are there and Paul’s price tag is far too cheap. The other mid-tier PG I like a good bit on DK is Mike Conley ($7800). The Memphis PG has completely taken over the offense, averaging 45.6 FPPG over his last six game (and taking home a Player of the Week award to boot). He gets the dream matchup against the Hawks who have allowed the most FPPG to opposing PGs (and not really close). Conley is in play in all formats at his price tag, as Memphis is getting as big a pace boost as a team can get.
Andre Iguodala ($4300/$4000) is the most logical guard value players will gravitate to tonight. Even if he doesn’t start for tonight, we should see ample opportunity, as Iggy is averaging 29.6 MPG with Durant off the court while posting a 13% UR and 17% AR. It’s possible we see him push his minutes into the 30s as well as the potential primary guardian of Harden. Iggy is especially valuable on FD where you need two specific SGs. I’m also into giving the Magic guards a look in either format tonight. Washington ranks eighth in pace and 23rd against guards, but more importantly, they’ve allowed the most PPG over the last ten contests, so D.J. Augustin ($4300/$4300) and Evan Fournier ($5400/$5400) should have extra opportunities to exceed their floors (even if they’re not the most exciting plays in the world).
Other options – Delon Wright, Dennis Schroder, Caris LeVert, Tyler Johnson, Reggie Jackson
FANDUEL TOP SMALL FORWARD
Paul George, OKC ($10,000)
As a per-dollar option, I like Paul George more than Westbrook tonight for the Thunder. The Nets have allowed the most scoring and rebounding to opposing frontcourts this season while also ranking 25th against wing archetypes, and PG has a 29% UR, 13% RR, and 18% AR in his current career season. His price is down after a mini-shooting slump, but the fact that he’s almost $2000 cheaper than his teammate Westbrook is a little silly. He’s a top target of mine in all formats, and elite access to the top offense of the night.
Other options – None
Mid-tier options – Kelly Oubre, Trevor Ariza
FANDUEL TOP POWER FORWARD
Draymond Green, GS ($6600)
Blake Griffin’s price tag continues to drop which makes him a super intriguing target, but the fact remains that Miami’s defense is nothing short of elite right now. For that reason, I have to defer to Dray for $1500 less. With KD off the court, Dray has a 13% rebounding rate and a 29% assist rate (again, Cousins is a wild card for this), and Houston ranks 21st against opposing PFs. Draymond averaged a triple-double against the Rockets in three games last year, and he’s just not priced correctly for the boosts he’s getting.
Other options – Blake Griffin, John Collins
Mid-tier options – Aaron Gordon, Bobby Portis
DRAFTKINGS TOP/MID FORWARDS
Paul George ($9600) is under 10k which I have continually said is absolutely ridiculous. At that price tag he needs about 45 points to hit value and his DK average is 51.1. He’s a core play for me on DK. I’m also OK giving John Collins ($7600) a look on DK whereas I’m ignoring him altogether on FD. Collins has averaged just under 1.5 FPPM over his last five games, and Memphis has fallen all the to 26th against PFs over the last five games. This is not the same Grizzlies defense since Marc Gasol was traded away. Blake Griffin ($8100) remains an intriguing GPP play on DK as well.
Bobby Portis is approaching “fair” price on FD at $6900, but his price of $6200 on DK screams value. He’s been incredible since entering the starting lineup for Washington, posting a 25.2% usage rate (second on the team only to Beal) and averaging 1.21 DK PPM. He’s gone over 41 DK points in four of his last five games, and Orlando has fallen to 21st in rebounding rate. Jerami Grant ($5900/$4800) is another player that can be used in all formats. His value is truly reached when one of Westbrook/George/Adams sits (which none are expected to do), but Grant gets the amazing matchup against the Nets frontcourt that we’ve attacked all year. He’s especially valuable on DK.
Other options – Josh Richardson, Joe Ingle, Jeff Green, PJ Tucker, Ed Davis
FANDUEL TOP CENTER
Nikola Vucevic, ORL ($10,000)
Vuc ranks up there with the best of them tonight, and he’s someone I want to try and prioritize if possible. His price is still a tad low on FD where he only needs 44 points to hit value (and he’s averaged 45.3 on the season). Vuc is the only center in the league with over 20% in usage, rebounding, and assist rates, and the Wizards rank 27th against centers and 29th in rebounding rate. Vuc has torn them up all three times he’s faced them this year as well. He’s as safe as they come this time of year.
Other options – Andre Drummond, Rudy Gobert, DeMarcus Cousins
Mid-tier options – Jonas Valanciunas, Steven Adams
DRAFTKINGS TOP/MID CENTERS
Vucevic ($9200) is the other expensive player I’m calling a core option on DK alongside Paul George (and I hope to fit Curry as well). $9200 is at least $1000 too cheap for Vuc, and the double-double bonus is in play here as well. Vuc is rolling again, averaging a shade under 50 DK PPG over his last ten. Also, Rudy Gobert ($8200) continues to be criminally underpriced on DK as opposed to a very aggressive price tag on FD. Utah will get a little healthier tonight which hurts Rudy’s usage, but Phoenix is ranked last against centers and last in rebounding rate. Come on now. We also can’t ignore DeMarcus Cousins ($7400). We have no sample size to use as far as “life without Durant” but there’s almost no way it negatively affects him, and Houston is 19th against centers and 26th in rebounding rate.
On FD specifically, I love Joakim Noah ($4800) in GPPs. He has a 20% UR, 18% RR, and 19% AR over the last ten games and will take on the Hawks who are first in pace and 23rd against centers. He could vastly outstrip his price tag and win you a GPP. On DK, Steven Adams ($6300) is facing the Nets who are the worst team in the league as far as points and rebounds per minute. Also, DeAndre Ayton ($6300) has a rough matchup against Rudy Gobert and the Jazz, but he’s been blowout proof as they develop him.
Other options – Jarrett Allen, Hassan Whiteside, Alex Len, Nerlens NoelFantasy Basketball