FanDuel and DraftKings DFS NBA Picks | 2/8/19


Guys. Seriously. FanTeamAdvice has now taken down the big Yahoo $10 GPP for two straight nights. @DFSGeir won it two nights ago, and our own @ThoreosNmilk hit the gold yesterday. We offer free week-long trials for new subscribers, so what are you waiting for? Get on board with us now while the NBA is in full swing and see what we’re all about. We’ve got an eight-game Friday night on the slate, and some teams will be rolling out new players. Let us help you win, and follow me on twitter @jac3600. Good luck!

FANDUEL TOP POINT GUARD

Ben Simmons, PHI ($9300)

This was a tough call at the top between Simmons and Steph Curry, but the Warriors are 16-point favorites against the Suns and I just can’t see all the stars eking out value there. Simmons also carries risk as another fairly high usage player has been added to the mix (Tobias Harris), but he’s still got triple-double upside on any given night. The spread is close (5.5) against Denver, and they’ve actually allowed the fifth most FPPG to opposing PGs over the last ten games. I don’t think you need to go here in cash, but GPP ownership should be low.

NOTE: Joel Embiid is questionable. If he sits, Simmons vaults up as one of the better cash plays on the slate.

Other options – Stephen Curry

Mid-tier options – Eric Bledsoe, DeAaron Fox, Kris Dunn, Dennis Smith

FANDUEL TOP SHOOTING GUARD

Bradley Beal, WAS ($9400)

Believe it or not, Beal has not been the biggest beneficiary as far as usage goes with the departure of John Wall. Otto Porter was, logging an 8% increase in UR with Wall off the court. Now that he’s gone, Beal is REALLY the only show in town for the Wiz, and he gets the best matchup in the league for guards as Cleveland has ranked dead last against them since day one. Cleveland is also last in overall team defense, and Washington has a healthy implied team total of 115 points. Beal is viable in all formats.

Other options – Luka Doncic, Jrue Holiday, D’Angelo Russell, Jimmy Butler

Mid-tier options – Zack LaVine, Malcolm Brogdon

DRAFTKINGS TOP/MID GUARDS

Doncic, Simmons, and Beal are all much cheaper on DK where they offer a good amount more value than on FD, especially since they can get bonuses for the 3PM and for double/triple doubles. However, I’m super intrigued by the price tag of D’Angelo Russell ($8200). His minutes floor is not always the most stable, but he’s posted a 33% UR and 40% AR since Spencer Dinwiddie went down. The Bulls rank 28th in overall team defense and 28th against opposing PGs, and Brooklyn currently has the highest team total on the slate at 117 points (I assume Golden State will pass this once they have a total). Russell is playable in all formats at this price tag. Another excellent mid-tier cash play is Eric Bledsoe ($6700) who will be taking on a Dallas team that now ranks 19th against opposing PGs. Khris Middleton is resting for this one, and Bledsoe’s usage rate climb almost 4% when Middleton is out.

VALUE GUARDS

Dennis Smith ($6600/$5800) is likely to be pretty highly owned tonight after his 25-6-6 performance against these same Pistons last time out. The key takeaway is that he played 39 minutes, so it looks like New York will hand him the keys to their offense even in a tank year. The Pistons rank 27th against opposing PGs and have allowed the most FPPG to them over the past five games. Smith is a great cash play, but I don’t mind going underweight in GPPs given the Knicks’ rotation volatility. The flurry of Cavs trades has really opened the door now for rookie Collin Sexton ($5000/$4500). Minutes in the upper 30s looks to be a given now, and Sexton threw up 24 shots last game, finishing with his best game of the year. Washington ranks eighth in pace, 25th in overall defense, and 18th against PGs, so there should be no shortage of opportunity. Finally, keep an eye on Devin Booker’s status for Phoenix. If he sits again, expect newly-acquired Tyler Johnson ($4700/$4300) to start and immediately play minutes into the 30s. Golden State is a strong defensive unit, but the pace of this game should mitigate that. Johnson has posted a very adequate 0.85 FPPM this year.

Other options – Shabazz Napier, Elie Okobo, George Hill, Jordan Clarkson, Malik Beasley, Josh Okogie, Tim Hardaway, Damyean Dotson

FANDUEL TOP SMALL FORWARD

Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL ($12,000)

Giannis’ price is finally on the rise, but I still think you make room for him in cash on this slate. The Bucks have the second highest implied team total tonight, and the Mavs rank 21st against opposing PFs. They’re ninth in rebounding rate but a lot of that ranking has to do with DeAndre Jordan who isn’t there anymore, so expect that number to drop with the undersized Kleber and Powell. Giannis has averaged an incredible 1.85 FPPM over the last ten games, and he’ll get almost a 3% usage boost with Khris Middleton out of the lineup. There are almost no paths tonight that make him a bad investment even at a high price, and Nikola Mirotic is not going to make his Bucks debut tonight.

Other options – Kevin Durant

Mid-tier options – Kelly Oubre, Josh Richardson, Trevor Ariza

FANDUEL TOP POWER FORWARD

Blake Griffin, DET ($9000)

Anthony Davis is expected to return tonight, but his situation makes him almost an impossible player to use at 13k. On DK it’s a different story which we’ll talk about in a bit, but on FD the 4k savings to Blake Griffin is the easy call for me. Griffin posted a 28-6-8 line against the Knicks a game ago, and they still rank dead last against opposing PFs. There is no one remotely capable of stopping Griff, while DeAndre Jordan at least can body up with Andre Drummond enough to potentially slow him down a bit. Outside of the 10k+ players, there is no player on this slate with the safety of Griffin tonight, and he’s one of my top targets for cash.

Other options – Anthony Davis, Julius Randle, Lauri Markkanen

Mid-tier options – Josh Jackson, Draymond Green

DRAFTKINGS TOP/MID FORWARDS

FanDuel made it easy to fade Anthony Davis, but DraftKings was a lot more savvy with their $11,200 price assignment. I still think I prefer paying the extra $200 for Giannis who we know isn’t a shut down candidate at all, but Davis only needs about 53 DK points to hit value at that price. Even if he’s somewhat limited, he should have no issue surpassing that, and he’ll be in a good amount of GPPs for me on DK whereas I think he’s a total fade on FD. Lauri Markkanen’s price caught up with him on FD, but he’s still a bargain on DK at only $7000 (only $100 more than his last game where he put up a monster line). It remains to be seen if Otto Porter will play, but Markkanen is the most direct beneficiary from the departure of Bobby Portis and Jabari Parker. He poured in a 30-10 game in 40 minutes last time out, logging almost a 35% usage rate. There’s no reason we can’t see the same tonight, and Brooklyn ranks 27th against opposing PFs. Ben Simmons ($8400) and Jimmy Butler ($7300) would be intriguing mid-tier targets if Joel Embiid were to sit tonight.

VALUE FORWARDS

Josh Jackson ($6900/$5900) and Mikal Bridges ($4700/$4800) are both logging massive minutes for the Suns lately with TJ Warren (and possibly Devin Booker again) out. Jackson has averaged 1.17 FPPM over the last ten games and there’s really no reason to think he (or Bridges) would be limited in any sort of blowout. Jackson is the far better value on DK, whereas Bridges is better on FD. Luke Kennard ($4800/$3500) is a SG only on FD, but has dual position eligibility on DK and looks like a terrific cash play there at $3500. He’s going to start for Reggie Bullock who was traded to the Lakers, and Kennard should see minutes near 30 with Stanley Johnson also out of town. He takes a big backseat to both Griffin and Drummond in the usage department, but the Knicks are in the bottom ten in every defensive category across the board while also allowing the second highest 3PT%. I also want to point out Kevin Love as a FD specific play. He’s $7500 on DK which takes him out of consideration even in GPPs, but at $5000 on FD he could get him way to value even if the Cavs limit him to 20 minutes. The Wizards rank 29th against centers and last in rebounding rate, and the additions of Bobby Portis and Jabari Parker won’t help that cause at all.

Other options – Trevor Ariza, Jeff Green, Bobby Portis, Jabari Parker, Harrison Barnes, Justise Winslow, Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber, Kenrich Williams, Ryan Broekhoff

FANDUEL TOP CENTER

Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN ($11,200)

The MIN-NO game now has the highest O/U on the slate at 232 points, and the seven-point spread means we should see a fairly competitive game between two teams that run and play no defense. KAT has seen unbelievable rates lately, and any absence of Jeff Teague and/or Derrick Rose will continue to keep those rates up. New Orleans ranks sixth in pace, so there will be possessions galore.

Other options – Joel Embiid, Andre Drummond, Nikola Jokic

Mid-tier options – Hassan Whiteside, DeMarcus Cousins, DeAndre Ayton

DRAFTKINGS TOP/MID CENTERS

As usual, DK ridiculously underprices their centers, and Towns leads the way there with a silly $10k price tag. He’s a top target in all formats at that price. Embiid ($10,700) is also too cheap but he’s battling an illness and Towns honestly carries the same upside for less money tonight. Andre Drummond’s price is bonkers at $8600, and I’d really look to try and squeeze him in if you’re not paying all the way up. He’s a walking double-double, and the Knicks rank 21st against centers and 26th in rebounding rate. He just had a 17-16 game against them with five blocks. In the mid-tier, you have to like DeAndre Ayton ($6500) if Devin Booker were to sit again. Ayton is pretty blowout-proof as the Suns look to develop him, and he’s got a 24% UR, 17% RR, and 14% AR with Booker off the court this year.

VALUE CENTERS

Well, it looks like no buyout came for Robin Lopez ($4400/$4000), and as a result he’s in play tonight. He could find himself looking at minutes in the upper 20s for the all-of-a-sudden shorthanded Bulls, and the Nets have still allowed 11% more scoring and 12% more rebounding to opposing centers. He’s fine as a punt on both sites. If Cristian Felicio ($3500/$3000) winds up getting start, he becomes the cash play at minimum price on both sites. On the other side of the ball, Jarrett Allen ($6000/$5000) is an upside play for GPPs. He doesn’t often get 30 minutes, but he averages 1.07 FPPM and the Bulls rank dead last against centers and 28th in rebounding rate. I’d even go so far as to call him a cash play on DK at such a low price, especially with Brooklyn having such a high team total.

Other options – Willie Cauley-Stein, Brook Lopez, Kevon Looney

Fantasy Basketball

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