I don’t know about you guys, but I’m exhausted. This thing either needs to be a “Super Bowl Saturday” or today needs to be a national holiday or something. To make matters worse, my kid puked all night so I’m mainlining coffee on my one hour of sleep. Rest easy, though – it will not deter me from DFS success tonight, and it’s looking like a fun one already. We’ll be in chat working hard for our FTA subs tonight, and follow me on twitter @jac3600.
FANDUEL TOP POINT GUARD
DeAaron Fox, SAC ($7600)
After some minutes fluctuation in January, Fox has seen 31 or more in three of his last four contests and beaten his value threshold in two of them. The Spurs are a big pace downgrade for the Kings but they also rank 20th in defensive efficiency against PGs and have allowed the third most FPPG to PGs over the last ten games. There are no stud PGs playing, so Fox is viable in all formats.
Other options – None
Mid-tier options – Trae Young, Eric Bledsoe, Chris Paul, Darren Collison
FANDUEL TOP SHOOTING GUARD
Bradley Beal, WAS ($9300)
With Chris Paul and Eric Gordon likely both active for the Rockets, I am comfortable NOT picking Harden here despite the cookie matchup against Phoenix. Beal is a top three per-dollar play on the SLATE, let alone at the SG position. He’s averaging 27/6/6 over his last 15 games with a 32% usage rate in that span, and tonight gets to face the Hawks who rank first in pace, have allowed the most 3PM, and have given up almost 53 FD PPG to opposing guards. Beal is a top target in cash, and I’d take an overweight approach in GPPs as well at his prices.
Other options – James Harden, Jrue Holiday, Devin Booker, D’Angelo Russell
Mid-tier options – DeMar DeRozan, Khris Middleton, Buddy Hield
DRAFTKINGS TOP/MID GUARDS
Beal is even more of a lock for me on DK at $9100, where he gets bonuses for 3PM and potential double-doubles (his assist rate is almost 27% without Wall). I would also seriously think about rostering Jrue Holiday ($8700) despite a tough matchup against the Pacers. With Oladipo gone, however, Indiana has already dropped from second to seventh in overall team defense and first to sixth against guards, so his absence is showing for sure. Everyone is out again for the Pelicans, and Jrue has a usage rate pushing 34% with AD, Mirotic, Randle, and Payton all off the court. Like Beal, his floor is astronomical for cash games. DeMar DeRozan ($7500) is my favorite mid-tier play on DraftKings. His Spurs get a huge pace boost (they’re 25th, Kings are second) and Sacramento ranks 20th in overall defense and also 20th against wings. Aldridge has pulled ahead of DDR on the usage chart lately, but there’s more than enough room for both of them tonight, and DeRozan is still rocking a career high 26.5% assist rate.
The Pelicans are interesting here. With most of the major players out again, we should see heavy run from both Frank Jackson ($3900/$3700) and Tim Frazier ($4400/$3900). Jackson played 42 minutes last game and had a huge game, so he’d be my preferred target if he starts again. However, it bears mentioning that Frazier’s rate have DESTROYED Jackson’s even though he’s played less minutes (39% assist rate last three games as opposed to Jackson’s 8%). Both are fine as cash punts, but I do lean to the starter as the preferred target if you’re not playing both. On the other side of the ball, Darren Collison ($6500/$6200) and Cory Joseph ($4500/$4100) are both solid plays. They get big pace boosts against the sixth ranked Pelicans, and New Orleans is 22nd against guards. Finally, Tomas Satoransky ($6500/$5600) is a fine play in all formats. Washington has the highest team total at 119.5, and Atlanta has allowed the most FPPG to opposing PGs by a lot. Tomas is a better value on DK, and for some reason is now SF eligible.
Other options – Shabazz Napier, Bryn Forbes, Patty Mills, Malcolm Brogdon, Eric Gordon, Malik Beasley
FANDUEL TOP SMALL FORWARD
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL ($11,600)
With all the values available (along with the money you’re not spending on Harden), Giannis becomes the top overall target for me. He’s averaged 1.83 FPPG over his last 15 and is at 1.66 for the year. Brooklyn very surprisingly ranks fourth in team defense over the last ten but they continue to funnel major points in the paint. The Bucks lead the East in PPG and Giannis has double-digit rebounds in eight of his last ten games. If this game stays close (which it should, as MIL is only a -7 favorite), look out.
Other options – None
Mid-tier options – Otto Porter, Trevor Ariza
FANDUEL TOP POWER FORWARD
Kenneth Faried, HOU ($8000)
Oh my God, what am I doing here. It’s so hard to tout Faried after his history, especially with both Aldridge and Griffin going on this one. However, Faried is in a matchup that is tailor-made for him. This is a game with high pace and no defense, which is where Faried shines, and the Suns have allowed the second most FPPG to opposing frontcourts over the last 15 games. Faried has averaged 1.22 FPPG since joining the Rockets, and he even met value in 20 minutes against a tough Jazz defense last game. This Suns squad just allowed 58.3 FD points to John Collins, who plays a very similar style.
Other options – LaMarcus Aldridge, Blake Griffin
Mid-tier options – John Collins, Thaddeus Young
DRAFTKINGS TOP/MID FORWARDS
Giannis ($10,900) is far too cheap on DK, and his price just never seems to move there. I would make it a point to prioritize him on this slate as I think he carries the biggest floor/ceiling combo of anyone playing (Harden included). He’s almost a lock for a double-double, which is important on DK. LaMarcus Aldridge ($8000) is a lot more of a play on DK than he is on FD at $9500. Aldridge’s usage rate has been at 31% the last ten games, and the Kings rank second in pace, 22nd against centers, and 25th in rebounding rate. He’s well in play in cash, but I do prefer the 8k-9k SGs instead. Blake Griffin ($8800) has a difficult matchup against Denver, but he’s simply too cheap. He plays 40 minutes per night and has a 31% UR and 27% AR this year. He’s an elite GPP play, and an option in cash as well.
Otto Porter ($6600/$5900) and Trevor Ariza ($6100/$5700) are the prime value forwards tonight. They’re far better values on DK, but are very usable on FD as well. Washington has the highest implied total on the slate and Atlanta ranks last against SFs with the highest TO rate as well. Porter is the ceiling play and Ariza the floor, but both are excellent options in all formats. You can also continue to trust in the minutes of Darius Miller ($4800/$4800). With the Pelicans thin (and tanking), Miller has played 37 minutes or more in three of the last five games and averaged 12.8 shots per game in that stretch. Indiana is 12th against SFs but Miller is too cheap for the sheer volume. Bojan Bogdanovic ($5700/$5700) is very viable in all formats with a huge pace boost against a New Orleans team that has ranked dead last against SFs since day one. He’s taken big steps forward with Oladipo out for the year.
Other options – Rudy Gay, Taurean Prince, Joe Harris, Will Barton, Davis Bertans, Marvin Bagley, Jeff Green, Damontas Sabonis, Kenrich Williams, Rodions Kurucs
FANDUEL TOP CENTER
Jahlil Okafor, NO ($7500)
There’s no need to spend on Jokic or Drummond against each other in cash, which leaves….Okafor?? In all seriousness, though, he’s stepped up big time with all the other Pelicans out, and he should be looking at 35 minutes. The matchup is difficult (Indiana is fifth against centers), but this is all about opportunity.
Other options – Nikola Jokic, Andre Drummond
Mid-tier options – DeAndre Ayton, Myles Turner, Brook Lopez
DRAFTKINGS TOP/MID CENTERS
PFs like Aldridge and Faried look to be the best center values on DK, but there area couple of “C’s only” I’m intrigued in as well. DeAndre Ayton ($6800) played full minutes in his last game against Atlanta and hit value with an easy double-double. Houston has been a terrific attack point for centers lately as they’ve given up the highest rebounding rate in the league in the last ten games (right in line with when Clint Capela went down), and Ayton is averaging 1.16 FPPM this year. Also, Andre Drummond ($8200) has an awful matchup against Denver who is fourth against centers, fifth in overall team defense, and first in rebounding rate, but this price tag is far too cheap for him. He leads the league in individual rebounding rate once again and has seen his usage kick back up to 23% over the last ten games.
Once again, Willie Cauley-Stein ($6100/$5800) continues to offer value. He’s surpassed 30 minutes in three of his last four games and hit value in all three as well. His floor is annoyingly low since the minutes aren’t always there (20 minutes in a cake matchup against Atlanta was frustrating two games ago), but he’s a solid 1.12 FPPM this season. Thomas Bryant ($4700/$5000) is another one to keep an eye on if Ian Mahinmi sits. Bryant is averaging over a fantasy point per minute this season and could easily hit value at his cheap tags against a Hawks team that ranks first in pace, 26th against centers, and 18th in rebounding rate. Atlanta sneakily has a lot of size, too, so Bryant may need to see a few extra minutes to match up.
Other options – Jarrett Allen, DeWayne Dedmon, Mason PlumleeFantasy Basketball