FanDuel and DraftKings DFS NBA Picks | 1/30/19


Yahoo was the sole winner last night, as FanDuel and DraftKings fell by the wayside. As our own Rick Basura predicted, chalky Michael Beasley “Trey Burke’d” us (and spoiler alert – we’re going to HAVE to go back to Burke tonight. Ugh). We have a big Wednesday ahead of us with eight games, and the New Orleans injuries will prove to be big ahead of lock tonight. As always, we’ll be working hard for you in chat tonight, and make sure to follow me on twitter @jac3600.

FANDUEL TOP POINT GUARD

DeAaron Fox, SAC ($7800)

The key game tonight is SAC/ATL, which features the top two ranked teams in pace, and both squads rank in the bottom ten in overall defensive efficiency. Atlanta has allowed 51.2 FanDuel PPG to opposing PGs which is 7% more than the rest of the league. The Kings’ minutes have been a been unpredictable lately, but the 236.5 O/U is just too high to ignore. You’re going to want multiple pieces from this game.

Other options – Damian Lillard, Kemba Walker

Mid-tier options – Trae Young, Darren Collison, Tomas Satoransky

FANDUEL TOP SHOOTING GUARD

Jrue Holiday, NO ($9600)

Holiday is fully priced, but he saw a 45% usage rate last night with Moore, Davis, Randle, and Payton all sidelined. Holiday has a tough matchup with lockdown defender Gary Harris, but that kind of Harden-esque usage can’t be forsaken. Holiday will need at least Randle to sit again to realize his true value at such a high price tag, but if the chips fall his way he’s a solid cash option.

Other options – Luka Doncic, Bradley Beal

Mid-tier options – CJ McCollum, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Buddy Hield, Andrew Wiggins

DRAFTKINGS TOP/MID GUARDS

Holiday ($8900) is a much better value on DK, but the same ruled apply as described above. Luke Doncic ($8800) is completely priced out on FD at $9800 but would be the key pivot on DK if Jrue lost value with Randle and/or Payton coming back. Dennis Smith back in the fold dings Doncic’s rates a bit, but the Knicks are ranked 29th in overall team defense and will get to showcase his immense talents at MSG for the first time. At the very least, Doncic is an elite GPP play. Bradley Beal ($8700) falls into the same category as he’s too cheap for his elite rates. The matchup with Indiana is tough (fifth in overall team defense), but the absence of Victor Oladipo will hurt the Pacers big time.

VALUE GUARDS

We are flush with value guards on this slate, especially if some of the injury news breaks again. Jeff Teague is out again for Minnesota, and if Derrick Rose sits again Jerryd Bayless ($5000/$5000) would become a key value against with a role in the upper 30s minutes, even in a tough matchup against Memphis. UPDATE: Rose is OUT, which makes Bayless a core play in cash. Chalky Trey Burke ($5400/$4800) busted last time around in only 24 minutes, but he needs to be considered as one of the top guard values (if not the top value) on the slate. The Mavericks rank 20th against PGs and Trey Burke has averaged 0.94 FPPM this season despite being it and out of the rotation. Kyrie Irving is doubtful again, which leaves Terry Rozier ($6500/$6100) and Jaylen Brown ($4700/$4700) soak up a lot of minutes and rates in Kyrie’s absence. Neither is a lock since Rozier is priced up and Brown doesn’t start, but they are both excellent options on this slate against Charlotte who ranks 21st in overall team defense. You also have to keep an eye on Elfrid Payton’s status again. Frank Jackson started, but Tim Frazier outplayed him off the bench. Both are great punts, especially on FD, if Payton were to sit again.

Other options – Jeremy Lin, Cory Joseph, Josh Okogie, Allonzo Trier, Wesley Matthews, Kevin Huerter, Dion Waiters

UPDATE: Randle, Mirotic, Payton, and Moore are ALL OUT. All three Pelicans guards are options, and Jrue is a core cash play on all sites.

FANDUEL TOP SMALL FORWARD

NONE

There is nothing whatsoever worth mentioning on the “high end” of the SF spectrum. Otto Porter is the highest priced player, and he’s not even really GPP relevant with a bench against the top ranked defense against SFs. Save your money as much as possible here.

FANDUEL TOP POWER FORWARD

John Collins, ATL ($8000)

The PF position is almost as bad as SF today on FD, but at least we have a “top player” here. With the lack of studs on this slate, Collins is in play in all formats despite being appropriately priced. Collins has been fully unleashed by the Hawks this season and he’s responded by averaging 1.16 FPPM. The Kings are 21st against PFs and 25th in rebounding rate, and they’ve also allowed the third most blocks per 48 minutes. There is almost no player from this game that doesn’t get a boost.

Other options – None

Mid-tier options – Jayson Tatum, Damontas Sabonis, Marvin Bagley, Noah Vonleh

DRAFTKINGS TOP/MID FORWARDS

DraftKings is pretty much the same, with a lot more value plays present than “top options”. Collins is intriguing at $7900, especially with the double-double bonus in play, but his price tag isn’t leaving a whole lot of room for value on DK either. He is a better option on DK than on FD, however. Buddy Hield ($7200) is interesting in the mid-tier with the same game environment already described in this article. Hield actually leads the Kings in usage over the last ten games, and the Hawks rank 25th against SGs. Will Barton is another intriguing option at $6800, even though that price seems appropriate. Barton is free of all minutes restrictions, and New Orleans has ranked dead last against opposing SFs for the entire season while also allowing the fifth most bench points. There is some blowout risk here with all the Pelicans out, but Denver needs to get Barton minutes as they gear up for the playoffs. Consider Andrew Wiggins ($6500) as well. With Teague and Rose out again, Wiggins should flirt with 40 minutes, making his cash floor pretty safe.

VALUE FORWARDS

Darius Miller ($4200/$3800) played 40 minutes yesterday with the Pelicans so thin, and there’s no reason to think he won’t again. New Orleans will be desperate for scoring outside of Holiday and Jahlil Okafor, and Miller took the next most shots yesterday after those two guys as the Pelicans shocked Houston. Miller’s price is amazing for cash, and he really lets you fit in any top players you want, even if they’re appropriately priced. Bogdan Bogdanovic is fairly priced on FD, but he’s a super value at $5500 on DK and he also has G and F eligibility. Bogdan is a lock for 30+ minutes whether he starts or not, and the Hawks allow the most bench points in the league anyway. Bogdan has a 21% UR and 20% AR over his last ten games. Fading him on DK is tough. James Johnson ($3900/$4000) is a better play on FD since you can drop him if the minutes aren’t there, but he’s averaged 26 MPG over the last three and gets a terrific matchup against the Bulls who rank 28th in rebounding rate. He’s a tournament target on DK, but I don’t think you need the volatility in cash with so many other values present on this slate.

Other options – Taurean Prince, Gary Harris, Bojan Bogdanovic, Evan Turner, Luol Deng, Marcus Morris, Taj Gibson, Dario Saric

FANDUEL TOP CENTER

Jahlil Okafor, NO ($7400)

There was already so much value that I was all set to lock in Jokic (which you still can if you want), but how do you fade Okafor at this point? He’s played 36 minutes each of the last two games and absolutely crushed it with 54 and 46.4 FD points, and he’s getting that run again tonight. Now, the matchup with Nikola Jokic is scary as there is foul risk present and Denver ranks first in rebounding rate. For this reason (and blowout risk), I think Okafor is a great GPP fade, but I don’t think you can pass on his mid-tier price tag in cash.

Other options – Nikola Jokic, Karl-Anthony Towns, Marc Gasol, Rudy Gobert

Mid-tier options – Al Horford, DeAndre Jordan, Myles Turner, Willie Cauley-Stein

DRAFTKINGS TOP/MID CENTERS

DraftKings is completely different from a build perspective, since you can roster both Okafor and Jokic. Okafor is a lock on DK with a $6600 price tag (wayyyyyy too cheap) and Jokic is also underpriced at $10,900. Jokic brings a unique 41% assist rate from the center position, and he’s the top projected scorer of the night. If you want to hazard a guess that Jokic misses value in a potential blowout, Karl-Anthony Towns is the GPP pivot you want at $10,600. He’ll come with far less ownership in a tough matchup against Memphis, but his rates have been bonkers without Jimmy Butler or Robert Covington around (28% UR, 18% RR, 21% AR), and now Teague and Rose are out again which ensures the ENTIRE offense runs through Towns.

VALUE CENTERS

There is too much opportunity cost at the center position tonight to look too deeply into the values so I wouldn’t save that much money here (that’s what SF and PF are for tonight). Willie Cauley-Stein ($6400/$6200) does pop a bit on both sites with a matchup against the Hawks who are 26th against centers. Cauley-Stein has taken under ten shots in six consecutive games which is concerning, but the minutes have at least been there. I think his price has dropped enough to consider in cash, but my exposure will still likely come in GPPs as a one-off or part of the game stack. That’s really it on the low end, although Mason Plumlee ($4000/$3900) has some GPP appeal at 1.14 FPPM. If you guess right at a blowout, we could see Plumlee push his minutes into the mid-20s which could allow him to go nuts at a near-punt play.

Fantasy Basketball

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