FanDuel and DraftKings DFS NBA Picks | 1/28/19


My torrid streak came to an end last night with a very pedestrian day on all three sites, but each streak ending means a new one can begin (philosophical, right?) We have only five games on this Monday slate, and a lot of big spreads make it tricky. We’ll be working hard for you in chat tonight, and make sure to follow me on twitter @jac3600.

FANDUEL TOP POINT GUARD

Kemba Walker, CHA ($9200)

There is UBER value at the PG position tonight, so Kemba is largely unnecessary in cash. However, he’s also incredibly enticing against a Knicks team that has fallen to 29th in defensive efficiency and 25th against PGs. Frank Ntilikina’s injury removes any vestige of defense, and Kemba has lit up the Knicks in the past. There’s definite blowout risk (CHA favored by 12), but he’s one of few players that has the upside to go 50-60, and this is the matchup for it.

Other options – Kyrie Irving, Stephen Curry

Mid-tier options – Trae Young

FANDUEL TOP SHOOTING GUARD

Lou Williams, LAC ($7100)

It’s a Lou night, as his rates should be solidified with Danilo Gallinari likely to miss another game tonight. There is no line or O/U on this game, but the total should dwarf the rest of the slate as both the Clippers and Hawks rank in the top ten in pace (Hawks are first), and Atlanta has allowed by far the most FPPM to opposing guards. The Hawks have also allowed the most bench points in the league (enter Lou) and Williams has posted a 32% UR and 29% AR since Gallinari went down.

Other options – D’Angelo Russell

Mid-tier options – Klay Thompson

DRAFTKINGS TOP/MID GUARDS

Kyrie Irving ($9600) is way more enticing on DK than he is on FD at almost $1000 cheaper. The Nets surprisingly rank fifth against opposing PGs but Kyrie has really put the team on his back lately, posting almost a 40% usage rate over the last five games. Kemba ($8900) is also a better value on DK, but the difference is not as great as Kyrie between the two sites. Lou is your mid-tier option here too at $7200, especially with the bonuses for 3PM (ATL has allowed the third most attempts from downtown). Trae Young ($6700) is an enticing GPP play against the Clippers.

VALUE GUARDS

It’s Trey Burke chalk night, which is a scary thing. It’s an idea we have to embrace, however, with Emmaneul Mudiay and Frank Ntilikina out. Burke ($4500/$4200) is massively underpriced given that he’s likely looking at over 30 minutes as the Knicks attempt to showcase him for a trade. Given the Knicks’ propensity to screw us, I’m ok not going all in, but you’ll want a fair amount of GPP exposure here too. The other key guard values come from the Clippers, who don’t have Lou Williams’ upside but are also much cheaper in an epic matchup against the Hawks. Patrick Beverley ($4500/$4600) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($3800/$3800) are excellent cash complements to Burke, especially Bev who has now seen his minutes pushed into the upper 30s with Gallinari out. We also can’t ignore Shabazz Napier ($4900/$4600) who gets a tough draw against Boston but has basically assumed Spencer Dinwiddie’s role. He saw 28 minutes off the bench last game, which is fine for his price tag.

Other options – Jeremy Lin, Jeremy Lamb, Tony Parker, Avery Bradley, Kevin Huerter, Monte Morris

FANDUEL TOP SMALL FORWARD

Tobias Harris, LAC ($7800)

You’re going to be loading up on Clippers in cash today, and that’s OK. I assume once the totals come in they’ll have the highest, even over Golden State, and Tobias is the main guy they run their offense through. He had a dud against the Kings in a similarly good matchup, but the Hawks are a team you fully attack. They’re first in pace, 26th in overall team defense, and 25th against forwards, and you’re also getting PF numbers from the SF position which adds a lot of rebounding upside. Tobias is someone you should heavily target this evening.

Other options – Kevin Durant

Mid-tier options – Will Barton

FANDUEL TOP POWER FORWARD

Montrezl Harrell, LAC ($7000)

I hope you’re noticing a theme here. The only knock on Montrezl is that he shares the second unit with Lou Williams who commands over 30% of the usage there. That said, Harrell is averaging 1.24 FPPM this year and that simply cannot be ignored against a Hawks team that gives up the most bench points and also allows the second most blocks per 48 minutes. He’s a borderline core play for me on FD where PF is thin and you have to roster two.

Other options – John Collins

Mid-tier options – Draymond Green, Damontas Sabonis, Jayson Tatum, Noah Vonleh

DRAFTKINGS TOP/MID FORWARDS

It’s no surprise, but the two Clippers’ forwards mentioned above are also the top two options on DK as well. Their prices are a touch more aggressive on DK (especially Tobias) and the lack of MPE makes them more valuable on FD, but both Harrell and Tobias are excellent plays in all formats. Kevin Durant ($9400) is really tough to ignore on DK at his price tag, especially since there are really no specific top plays to lock in. His usage has dropped 3% since Cousins started playing, but that’s baked into his price tag. Durant is as steady as fantasy players come.

UPDATE: Draymond Green has been ruled out for rest. Bump up the other Warriors.

VALUE FORWARDS

He haven’t mentioned the Hawks much in the late game, but they come with their own upside as well. They’re not getting much of a pace downgrade against the Clippers, and L.A. is a below average team defensively as well. Taurean Prince ($5300/$5400) is the best value from Atlanta as he logged 35 minutes against the Blazers last game, even with Kevin Huerter back. Prince offers contributions in all five categories, and the Clippers have the fourth highest TO rate in the league. Prince is a better value on FD where you specifically need two SFs. Jayson Tatum ($6500) is a meh value on FD (OK as a last piece), but he’s an AMAZING price on DK at $5600, which hasn’t moved from his last game against the Warriors. Tatum’s usage has been climbing lately (up to 24% over the last five games) and the Nets rank 25th in the league against opposing forwards.

Other options – Bojan Bogdanovic, Tyreke Evans, Nicolas Batum, Gordon Hayward, Gary Harris, Marvin Williams, Marcus Morris

FANDUEL TOP CENTER

Nikola Jokic, DEN ($11,400)

Center is really not good on FD tonight, and that includes Jokic who is more than fully priced. The only reason he really gets the top mention here is that there’s no other stud that pops as a “must-play”, and Jokic easily has the most upside of any player on the slate. He’s fresh off a massive triple-double against the Embiid-less Sixers, and Denver is pushing hard to pass Golden State for the top seed in the West. The matchup against Memphis is bad (they’re 30th in pace, second against centers), but the Grizzlies do rank 27th in rebounding rate and Jokic’s 41.3% assist rate is unrivaled at the center position. You’re not getting much value here, but I think it’s fine to overpay for him tonight given the makeup of the slate.

Other options – Marc Gasol

Mid-tier options – Al Horford, DeMarcus Cousins

VALUE CENTERS

With Draymond Green ruled out for Golden State, Kevon Looney ($4200/$3900) becomes the best value center on the slate, and you can use him in cash on both sites. He’s likely looking at a 26-28 minute role with DeMarcus Cousins not all the way back yet, and Looney has averaged a solid 0.94 FPPM this year even in limited time all season. He’s now one of the better punts even in a tough matchup with Indiana. On DK specifically, Al Horford ($6400) is underpriced and gains extra value with MPE (allowing you to roster multiple centers). We’ve been on the “centers vs Nets” play all season, and Horford should have no trouble hitting value as he’s getting 30+ minutes again.

Other options – Jarrett Allen, Willy Hernangomez, Alex Len, Marcin Gortat

Fantasy Basketball

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