FanDuel and DraftKings DFS NBA Picks | 1/25/19


Well, I was in chat for all of 12 minutes last night and played very light, but my DraftKings cash lineup went bonkers and we’re all a little richer today. It’d be fun to keep it going on tonight’s ten-game slate, and we already have some uber-values that have opened up with injuries to key players. The other thing to watch for is Chris Paul, who is officially listed questionable. If he returns, it finally puts a damper on this Harden run we’ve enjoyed, so keep a close eye out. Follow me on twitter @jac3600 for all your DFS goodness.

FANDUEL TOP POINT GUARD

Mike Conley, MEM ($8400)

There is SO MUCH VALUE on the cheap end of PG that you shouldn’t even look up here. The matchup against Sacramento is amazing for Conley, so fire away in GPPs, but there’s absolutely no need to spend in cash.

Other options – Kemba Walker

Mid-tier options – DeAaron Fox, Kris Dunn, Jamal Murray

FANDUEL TOP SHOOTING GUARD

James Harden, HOU ($14,000)

This blurb’s gonna be short and sweet too. If Paul is out, you’re playing Harden. 14k is still too cheap for someone who has scored over 74.8 FD in six of his last seven games and has a 46% UR and 51% AR in that span. If Paul returns, even in a limited capacity, I think we can finally authorize a Harden fade as his price would be a tad too steep (especially against a competent defense in Toronto).

Other options – D’Angelo Russell, Donovan Mitchell, Devin Booker

Mid-tier options – Zack LaVine, Khris Middleton

DRAFTKINGS TOP/MID GUARDS

As usual, Harden ($13,800) is a better value on DK where the bonuses are present, but the same rules apply in regards to Chris Paul. If he comes back, Harden’s a touch too expensive. The aforementioned Conley is a much better value on DK at $7700 and can be played in cash even alongside Harden. Sacramento ranks second in pace and 25th in overall team defense while allowing the third most assists per game. Bradley Beal ($8900) ran his butt off against Golden State yesterday so the b2b issue is a worry, but he’s still a tad too cheap for his rate boosts and Orlando allows the third highest 3PT% in the league. The most dynamic play is D’Angelo Russell ($8600). His price is tough to swallow since we know his downside, but he’s playing like an allstar right now and the minutes should be more solidified with Spencer Dinwiddie likely looking at an extended absence. Throw in a matchup with the Knicks who rank dead last in team defense and just let Harden put up almost 100 fantasy points on them, and you’ve got a cash viable play who is also arguably the top GPP option on the entire slate.

UPDATE: Chris Paul has been ruled OUT. Fire up Harden once again.

VALUE GUARDS

While we’re still on the Nets, Shabazz Napier ($3800/$3600) is a lock in cash and I would go almost all in on him GPPs as well. Even if he doesn’t start, he’s looking at minutes in the upper 20s with Dinwiddie out and has averaged just about a fantasy point per minute this year. The matchup against the Knicks can’t be any better, and he’s blowout proof as well. The other one who is ALMOST a lock (we need Teague news) is Jerryd Bayless ($4000/$3600). Tyus Jones is out, and Jeff Teague and Derrick Rose both look highly doubtful for tonight. The matchup against Utah isn’t great as they rank second in total defense and second against guards, but Bayless is easily looking at a 36+ minute role, and he’s priced like a sub. The other one you have to REALLY consider is Tyler Johnson ($4900/$4200). He’s a better value on DK (especially where you can play all three of these guards with Harden). Johnson is going to stick with the starters and he played 35 minutes last game against the Clippers with all the Heat guards healthy (except Dragic, of course). Cleveland ranks 28th in overall team defense and dead last against PGs.

Other options = Emmanuel Mudiay, Allonzo Trier, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Patrick Beverley, Elie Okobo, Reggie Jackson, Dennis Smith, Andrew Wiggins, Eric Gordon, Justin Holiday, Evan Fournier, Garrett Temple

FANDUEL TOP SMALL FORWARD

Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL ($11,500)

Giannis is actually rivaling Harden’s FPPM right now, as the two are equal over the last ten games. The issue is that Harden has also played ten more MPG than Giannis in that span, which separates their ceilings considerably. Tonight is looking like the same, as Milwaukee is favored by 12 points despite having the highest implied team total of 120.5 points. Charlotte is ranked 18th against PFs, and Giannis is viable in all formats, but I just can’t see fading Harden for him – which is the only way to do it.

Other options – Kawhi Leonard

Mid-tier options – Tobias Harris, Otto Porter, Trevor Ariza, Josh Richardson

FANDUEL POWER FORWARD

Montrezl Harrell, LAC ($7200)

I’m not interested in Blake Griffin at over 10k with Andre Drummond expected to return, and Montrezl is perched there at a way too cheap price tag. He’s absolutely cash viable even if he’s not starting, as the Bulls rank 21st against PFs, 28th against centers, 28th in rebounding rate, and allow the most bench points. Montrezl is averaging 1.24 FPPM this year, and could really light it up this evening.

Other options – Blake Griffin

Mid-tier options – Lauri Markkanen, Serge Ibaka, Aaron Gordon

DRAFTKINGS TOP/MID FORWARDS

Antetokounmpo ($10,700) is a lot better value on DK where he can get his double-double bonus (especially where Charlotte ranks 22nd in rebounding rate). The problem is that Harden is also a better value on DK, so the gap isn’t really closed that much. Harrell ($6700) is really intriguing on DK at his price tag, and can be played in all formats. Lauri Markkanen ($6500) is another play you really have to consider on DK. The Clippers have become the new “Nets”, having fallen all the way to last in defensive efficiency against centers, and Markkanen has played a lot of minutes at the five with Wendell Carter out. Don’t think Robin Lopez is cutting into any of his production either. Don’t forget about Kawhi Leonard at $9500. There is no way you can play him in cash, but he has 50-60 points upside if he’s given full run, and NO ONE will be on him.

VALUE FORWARDS

The Suns will be without TJ Warren, DeAndre Ayton, Richaun Holmes, and DeAnthony Melton tonight, which opens up a good amount of minutes on the wing and in the frontcourt. Kelly Oubre ($6000/$5600), Josh Jackson ($5300/$5500), and Dragan Bender ($4600/$4600) all have to be considered, even though none pop as a real value play and any could sit in a blowout (which is likely). Of this group, Oubre presents the most upside at over a fantasy point per minute, and I would feel relatively comfortable with him as a last piece in cash or in GPPs. On the opposite side of the ball, Will Barton ($5100/$6100) and Gary Harris ($4400/$5000) are far too cheap for a matchup with the Suns who rank 28th against opposing wing players. Denver has the second highest team total at 119.5 points behind Milwaukee, and either of these players could run into value even in limited minutes. Both are much better players on FD. Other site specific cash plays are Otto Porter on DK at $6100 (FD price tag of $7100 is tough) and Noah Vonleh on FD at $5900. He’s the same price on DK, but multi-position eligibility over there makes him less of a value. Bigs against the Nets have succeeded all season long.

Other options – Pascal Siakam, Bobby Portis, Jaren Jackson, James Johnson, Ed Davis, Justin Holiday, Joe Harris, Mikal Bridges, Harrison Barnes

FANDUEL TOP CENTER

Marc Gasol, MEM ($8000)

Obviously Jokic and Vuc are better, but their prices just don’t work on FD. Gasol, on the other hand, is still too cheap for a full complement on minutes against the Kings. Memphis is ranked dead last in pace and Sacramento is second, plus the Kings are 26th against centers and 26th in rebounding rate. Gasol is easy to fit with all the values at guard, and makes a very sensible play in cash.

Other options – Nikola Jokic, Nikola Vucevic, Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert

Mid-tier options – Hassan Whiteside, Jarrett Allen

DRAFTKINGS TOP CENTERS

DraftKings is a different story at center. Karl-Anthony Towns is barely a play there at $11,100, but is vastly underpriced on DK at $10,000. Utah generally has a stigma of being a team to avoid with centers (thanks to Rudy Gobert), but they actually rank 21st against centers this year and just recently gave up monster games to Jusuf Nurkic and Nikola Jokic. Towns is soaking up so much additional usage with Butler gone and Covington hurt, and that number’s only going up with Teague and Rose likely out as well. Towns can be utilized in all formats, but I love him in GPP where I think people will be scared of him. Ironcally, Marc Gasol ($8300) is actually a worse value on DK, and I would steer clear of him when you can much more easily get up to Nikola Vucevic at $9700 who is also underpriced against a Washington team that ranks last in rebounding rate.

VALUE CENTERS

Jarrett Allen ($6600/$5800) is the first name that pops on the value list. He has finally been getting steady minutes in the upper 20s and sometimes into the low 30s, and will be facing a crumbling Knicks team that ranks last in overall team defense. Centers have been killing them lately, and Allen will benefit from Dinwiddie’s usage being off the table. Allen is a better value on DK for cash, as I’d rather find the $1400 to get to Gasol on FD. Tristan Thompson is ruled out again for the Cavs, so Ante Zizic ($5400/$5700) should be looking at 30+ minutes once again, even if Larry Nance returns tonight. Miami ranks first against centers, but a lot of offense has been run through Zizic lately. I’d stick to GPPs on FD, and probably avoid altogether on DK. Finally, Marcin Gortat ($3600) can be used as a FD specific punt if he starts again. The Bulls are very soft inside, and you can throw out Gortat’s score if he simply doesn’t get the minutes.

Other options – Willie Cauley-Stein, Willy Hernangomez

Fantasy Basketball

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