Welcome to another week of NBA DFS! We wrapped up was what probably the last cash week for NFL in style, winning big on DraftKings and Yahoo. I finished the NFL season with profit in 16 of 19 weeks, so I’m REALLY sad to see it end. We can fully focus on NBA now, and tonight six-game slate which features Anthony Davis in a smash spot, and James Harden who is just smashing at a historic rate. Which one to use?? Join us in chat tonight, and follow me on twitter @jac3600.
FANDUEL TOP POINT GUARD
Kemba Walker, CHA ($8500)
The top of the PG pool features Kemba and Lillard, both of whose rates are still intact but their efficiency has really tapered off as of late. Lillard is in the much better matchup, but I’ll take Kemba for the $900 discount. San Antonio has really tightened up defensively but still rank 19th against opposing PGs, and Kemba is still rocking a top-ten usage rate in the NBA. His ceiling has been really diminished lately, but he’s shouldn’t be this cheap.
Other options – Damian Lillard, DeAaron Fox
Mid-tier options – NONE
FANDUEL TOP SHOOTING GUARD
James Harden, HOU ($13,300)
All right, we FINALLY have a debate here between Harden and AD, but as it sits now the values that have opened up will allow you to jam both in there. Last night against Orlando, Harden was 1-17 from downtown and STILL put up 74.8 FPS. The matchup against Memphis is not good as they’re last in pace and seventh against opposing guards, but it just doesn’t matter at this point. If choosing one stud, I actually do prefer Davis tonight, but you can get both in there.
Other options – Donovan Mitchell, DeMar DeRozan, Jrue Holiday
DRAFTKINGS TOP/MID GUARDS
As usual, Harden is still not appropriately priced on DK at $12,400, which is a price tag that only requires him to get to about 57-58 points to hit value. He’s been nearing that total by halftime lately, so don’t fade him on DK – he is definitely above even AD on this site. Donovan Mitchell ($9200) has seen his price aggressively rise on DK but it’s with good reason. With the other three Jazz PGs out Mitchell has assumed full responsibility of running the offense, and he’s posted a 36.5% UR and 34.6% AR over the last two games. Kemba ($7900) is far too cheap on DK and is cash worthy. A couple of very intriguing GPP candidates are D’Angelo Russell ($6500) who has almost a 32% UR the last ten games and will face a Boston team without Kyrie or Marcus Smart, and Lou Williams ($6700) who is participating in the game against New Orleans that features a 240 O/U.
Terry Rozier ($3900/$3700) and Jaylen Brown ($4000/$4300) are both flat out locks on this slate, and their near-minimum price tags are your direct path to fitting in both Harden and AD. Both should see minutes in the mid-30s, and see dynamic rate boosts with Kyrie off the court. Marcus Smart joining him on the sidelines will only help matters, and Brooklyn in 19th in overall team defense. Derrick White ($5900/$5400) an Bryn Forbes ($4700/$4700) are secondary complements to the Boston guards that can be used either as a last piece in cash or as GPP pivots. Over the last five, White is averaging 16/5/3 while playing 30+ minutes in three of those games (48 in the double OT affair). A FanDuel-specific GPP pivot is Shelvin Mack ($3800) who has gotten back into the rotation and saw 28 minutes last game. Houston has ranked 27th against PGs since Chris Paul has been out, and you can just throw Mack’s score away if he disappears again.
Other options – Spencer Dinwiddie, Jeremy Lamb, Reggie Jackson, Austin Rivers, Kyle Korver
FANDUEL TOP SMALL FORWARD
Danilo Gallinari, LAC ($7300)
Gallo is the highest-priced SF on FanDuel which tells you what you need to know about the position tonight, but I’m actually not opposed to playing him in cash if funds afford (they probably won’t). Gallo is a lock for minutes in the mid-30s and is taking part in by far the best offensive environment. New Orleans ranks sixth in pace and is dead last in defensive efficiency against SFs.
Other options – None
Mid-tier options – None
FANDUEL TOP POWER FORWARD
Anthony Davis, NO ($12,700)
On DraftKings you still have to be #TeamHarden, but on FD I’m not against calling AD the top play, even over the Beard. He’s $600 less for once, and is in a matchup he should absolutely smash. The two teams are both top ten in pace and the O/U is 240, and the Clips allow the second most FPPG to opposing centers while also ranking 26th in defensive efficiency against them. When he’s not making trips to the locker room, Davis is averaging 1.70 FPPM which is bonkers, and he’s already dropped 62.1 on the Clippers this year. Play him with confidence.
Other options – LaMarcus Aldridge
Mid-tier options – Tobias Harris, Montrezl Harrell
DRAFTKINGS TOP/MID FORWARDS
Anthony Davis ($11,600) is just as wonderful on DK where he’s underpriced. The only thing keeping me off him over there is that Harden is still WAY underpriced, and he has to be your choice if only going with one in cash. DeMar DeRozan ($8500) and LaMarcus Aldridge ($8200) still have room for value on their price tags as they are pretty much the entire offense for the Spurs (combined 60% usage rate) and the Hornets rank 20th against SFs and 24th against PFs. Tobias Harris ($7700) comes with big foul risk if he gets tasked with guarding AD at all, but he’s by far the most stable play for a Clippers team that has the highest implied total of the night at 121 points.
It’s off to Boston we go again for value. You’re going to need at least three Celtics in cash tonight to make the studs work, and I’m not at all opposed to having four. Gordon Hayward ($5200/$5300) is the best option (especially on FD where you need two SFs). In a small sample, he has a 23% UR and 21% AR with Kyrie off the court. Marcus Morris ($5100/$5800) and Jayson Tatum ($6000/$6300) are also excellent plays in both formats, but keep in mind they’re MUCH better values on FD, especially with Jaylen Brown being forward eligible on DK. Also, we cannot forget about the Jazz forwards who have seen immense rate boosts with the three guards out. Joe Ingles ($630/$6100) has played backup PG in their absence and he has a 20% UR and 25% AR over the last two games. Royce O’Neale ($4900/$4700) is a scary per-minute guy but he’s been very solid over the last two as well. logging 36 and 39 minutes and crushing value in both games. The problem with him is his price tag aggressively rose, and he has bust potential. If you can fit him in cash that’s fine, but I’d fade in GPPs.
Other options – Derrick Favors, Jae Crowder, Evan Turner, Davis Bertans, E’Twaun Moore, Nemanja Bjelica, Harry Giles, Marvin Williams, Nikola Mirotic
FANDUEL TOP CENTER
Jusuf Nurkic, POR ($8800)
There is no way you’re spending this much in cash for a center tonight if you want Harden and AD, but I do prefer Nurkic over Gobert whose price has shot up to a scary place on FD. Nurkic will get the pleasure of taking on the Kings who rank second in pace, 28th against centers, and 26th in rebounding rate. His minutes have bee stable in December and January, and he’s averaging 1.38 FPPM this year.
Other options – Rudy Gobert, Andre Drummond, Clint Capela
Mid-tier options – Julius Randle, Marc Gasol, Willie Cauley-Stein, Al Horford
DRAFTKINGS TOP/MID C’s
The biggest difference here as opposed to FanDuel is Rudy Gobert ($8200) who is still not priced for the rate boosts he’s gotten the last two games. Detroit ranks 11th in rebounding rate but is also 20th against opposing centers. The other big discrepancy is Clint Capela ($7500) who DraftKings just doesn’t seem to understand. His usage and rebounding rates are both over 20% the last ten games, and he should be looking at big minutes against Marc Gasol and company. The matchup isn’t great (sixth against centers), but Memphis still does rank 27th in rebounding rate.
Al Horford ($6700/$6200) is a better value on DK than on FD, but he’s a fun way to get Boston exposure. Horford was finally cleared for 30 minutes and he responded with 42.2 FD points. Tonight he gets the Nets who have allowed 14% more scoring and 15% more rebounding than the rest of the league against centers, and Horford’s assist rate rises to 26% when Kyrie sits. Marcin Gortat ($3700) and Pau Gasol ($3600) are ways you can punt the position to make fitting in Harden and AD all the more easier, and I’m not opposed to even using Gasol on DK at $3100 even though you’re unlikely to get more than 15 minutes.
Other options – Jarrett Allen, Bismack Biyombo, Willy Hernangomez, Robert WilliamsFantasy Basketball