FanDuel and DraftKings DFS NBA Picks | 1/12/19


It was another stellar night for the FTA crowd. I have some serious streaks going right now (9 straight on FD, 6 straight on Yahoo), and DK has gotten back on track lately too. We have a full day of both NFL and NBA, so let’s get right to it. If you’re not with us, you’re missing out! Make sure to follow me on twitter @jac3600 as well.

FANDUEL TOP POINT GUARD

Kemba Walker, CHA ($8300)

Westbrook is a monster as usual, but he doesn’t deserve a Harden-esque price tag when Paul George is matching him every step of the way for usage. For that reason, I’d prefer to take the $4000 (!) discount on Kemba. His usage rate has dipped recently, but Sacramento is ranked second in pace and 26th against PGs, and this game has the highest O/U on the slate at 235 points. Kemba’s priced at a bargain, and is the best player in this game by far.

Other options – Russell Westbrook, DeAaron Fox, Kyrie Irving

Mid-tier options – Jamal Murray, Kris Dunn, Jeff Teague

FANDUEL TOP SHOOTING GUARD

Donovan Mitchell, UTA ($8100)

Oh, heck yeah. Mitchell was such a lock yesterday, and he delivered in style. We’re going right back to the well again with all three Jazz PGs out again for tonight, and Mitchell should play minutes in the upper 30s with the ball constantly in his hands. Mitchell only needed 32 minutes last night to put 57 FD points, and the Bulls rank 22nd against opposing guards.

Other options – DeMar DeRozan, Jrue Holiday

Mid-tier options – Andrew Wiggins, Buddy Hield

DRAFTKINGS TOP/MID GUARDS

Mitchell’s price rose to $8500 on DK which makes the choice tough over Kemba ($8400). You can conceivably do both, but that would likely mean passing on Anthony Davis. DeRozan is in this group here at $8300 as well, and Westbrook ($11,800) is a much better value on DK should you choose to pay up for him as your one stud. DeAaron Fox ($7900) is still sub-8k on DK which is silly considering his 26% UR and 32% AR over the last ten games. He’s better in GPPs, but is cash viable if you can’t quite get to the guys above.

VALUE GUARDS

Devin Booker is doubtful tonight for the Suns, which means DeAnthony Melton ($4400/$4800) should get a solid amount of run once again. Denver is not an easy matchup by any means but Melton has 14 assists, six steals, and four blocks over the last two games in Booker’s absence. The defensive stats alone give him a solid floor on FanDuel, where he’s a much better value. Dennis Schroder ($5200/$4800) is another guard value you can use this evening. Not starting and playing next to two usage monsters in Westy and George hurts, but he’s the main usage guy in the second unit with a 24% UR. He played 36 minutes in the double OT game, and the Spurs bench defense is below average.

Other options – Bogdan Bogdanovic, Evan Fournier, Jeremy Lamb, Zack LaVine, Bryn Forbes, Derrick Rose, and of the Denver guards if Gary Harris sits again

FANDUEL TOP SMALL FORWARD

Paul George, OKC ($9700)

It’s important to understand one fact – PG has matched Westbrook’s usage rate since December 1. That’s all you need to know about the price difference between the two. Sure, George’s rebound rates and assist rates are dwarfed by Westy, but PG still rates as the better value here. Don’t expect another double OT game, but the contest should be super competitive which means 35-37 minutes for PG. It’s awesome that his price is back below 10k.

Other options – None

Mid-tier options – TJ Warren

FANDUEL TOP POWER FORWARD

Anthony Davis, NO ($12,800)

AD is the top overall play on the slate (surprise, surprise), but that doesn’t necessarily make him a lock tonight. There are very few punt plays right now outside of the Jazz players from yesterday, and there are several mid-tier guards and centers that are really enticing. If you can fit him, though, AD could put up a monstrous line against Minnesota who ranks 11th in pace (NO is fourth) and has abandoned defense completely under their new coach. At the very least, load up in GPPs.

Other options – LaMarcus Aldridge

Mid-tier options – Aaron Gordon, Paul Millsap

DRAFTKINGS TOP/MID FORWARDS

There’s not much to say here about DraftKings that doesn’t apply to FanDuel as well, but Paul George ($9500) is a better value on DK where he’s SF/PF eligible and gets bonus points for the 3-ball. Davis ($11,700) is also a much better price tag on DK, but is also more difficult to fit in than he is on FD.

VALUE FORWARDS

Like yesterday, the Jazz are where you want to look first. Joe Ingles ($6100/$6000) came through just like we expected and his price has only risen marginally. Royce O’Neale ($3500/$3900) is in the same boat, as he performed beautifully yesterday and is the only one besides Mitchell and Ingles that can handle the ball. His price hasn’t moved either, and he’s a must if you want Anthony Davis. Jae Crowder ($4000/$4600) is the GPP play of the trio as he won’t start, but has a higher per-minute average and a higher rebounding rate than his teammates listed above. After that, Jerami Grant ($5400/$5400) is someone I totally whiffed on last game but won’t make the same mistake again. His minutes are secure in the 30s with Nerlens Noel out, and the Spurs rank 27th against opposing PFs. He’s not priced appropriately and will be heavily owned which makes him a top cash play, but an underweight option in GPPs. Finally, don’t forget Josh Jackson ($5100/$5600). The Suns are awful to trust and Denver is rough on opposing forwards, but Jackson has averaged 31 MPG the last three and hit value on FD in all three. His price tag is less enthralling on DK.

Other options – Derrick Favors, Jayson Tatum, Taj Gibson, Dario Saric, Lauri Markkanen, Harry Giles, Richaun Holmes

FANDUEL TOP CENTER

Rudy Gobert, UTA ($8400)

It’s back to Gobert tonight, especially since Karl-Anthony Towns in questionable and may not be 100% even if he plays. Gobert was as advertised yesterday against the Lakers with 12 points and 18 boards, and we should see the same results tonight against a Bulls squad that is 28th against centers and 29th in rebounding rate while allowing the third most blocks per 48 minutes. Gobert’s usage rate is up almost 2% with the guards off the court, and his price didn’t move on FD.

Other options – Karl-Anthony Towns, Nikola Vucevic, Nikola Jokic

Mid-tier options – DeAndre Ayton, Willie Cauley-Stein, Steven Adams

DRAFTKINGS TOP/MID C’s

Towns ($9900) is really the best value at center on DK where his price tag inexplicably remains under 10k. If he plays, he’s looking at a matchup with the Pelicans who rank fourth in pace and 24th against centers. The sky’s the limit in an offense-first scheme that Minnesota is running now. Gobert ($8200) is excellent here as well, especially with the double-double bonus. Vucevic ($8800) is way underpriced even with a tough matchup against Boston. With Mo Bamba out again, Vuc will get a few minutes added to his projection and he should be rested with Orlando playing in some blowouts recently. Willie Cauley-Stein ($6900) is also underpriced on DK, but Sacramento getting fully healthy keeps him as a GPP play only.

VALUE CENTERS

You’ve got to pay a little for center tonight, as there’s literally nothing on the low end that’s viable. DK’s MPE makes it a little easier as there are forwards you can put in this spot cheap, but they hold more value in the F spots anyway. If you want to take a guess on which Charlotte center will be better, go for it in GPPs as Sacramento is 27th against centers and 26th in rebounding rate. The problem is they’re splitting minutes pretty evenly. Biyombo at $4100 is an enticing GPP punt with the option to drop his score. On DK, Hernangomez is the better value at $4100.

Fantasy Basketball

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