As primarily a cash game player, I wanted to start this series so we can go over my NFL cash lineup from the weekend before. This could show my process to everyone reading over the course of the week and might be able to help me and everyone else get better on a week-to-week basis. We could potentially pick out what we did right, what we did wrong, and be better for it.
The last couple weeks have been really tilting because we missed cashing in our double-up’s by under five points both weeks. The blueprint for cash this season has lead us to an extremely good 11-2 record in terms of head-to-head percentage, over 55% is what we look for. That blueprint has been to spend down at receiver and tight end, pay up for at least two running backs and find a mid to upper tier receiver. This week was very tough as there was a lot of overlap in terms of who people used because of news and that led to a lot of plays being locks.
- All week I knew I wanted Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley. McCaffrey was just coming off a 52 point outburst and has simply just been a workhouse on the ground and through the air since week seven. We have targeted running backs against TB as they have been super giving and this week was no different. It’s always scary playing guys against the Bears in cash but Barkely has essentially been match-up proof all year, as he averaged 26.7 DK points per game against top-15 run defenses this season. He barely missed value coming about three points short of what we needed from him. If he scored he would have been a smash play at very low ownership. The two combined for 54.7 of our total, definitely the number you’re looking for from two of your top spends.
- At the beginning of the week I had paid up for three backs, the two I just mentioned and Kareem Hunt. Well we all know what happened with Hunt and this put us onto Spencer Ware at a $4,000 price tag. I didn’t really know what to do with my lineup after the Hunt news but couldn’t fade Ware at what I knew would be high ownership. He didn’t really light the world on fire barely hitting value at 12.2 DK points, but he was an insane 88% owned in my double ups.
- I was onto the Jameis/Humphries stack very early in the week and the two combined for 41.86 DK points at a $10,200 combined salary. The Bucs throw the ball 80% of the time and were up against a Panthers defense that funnels yards through the air. Humphries and Chris Godwin were the two cheap Bucs receivers and I liked both but liked the volume Humphries had been getting more than the potential boom or bust play of Godwin.
- Eric Ebron was the last obvious lock of my lineup with the news that Jack Doyle would be sitting out the rest of the season. The game was very low scoring and he still managed to score 16.2 DK points on an insane 16 targets. He was just missed in the end-zone that would have made him a smash play.
- When I needed to pivot down to Ware instead of Kareem Hunt, this put me onto Thielen and Conley. I honestly didn’t know what to do at receiver and figured the consistency of Thielen would be nice at his price and didn’t really like any of the other higher priced guys. Unfortunately for us, Thielen had a floor game in a game where the Vikings just wanted to dink and dunk their way down the field. He scored a touchdown late in the first half which inflated his points scored but he had a pretty terrible game all things considered.
- Conley also had a mediocre game and really only hit value because of the touchdown he scored late in the game. Looking back on it, playing both Bucs value receivers was the way to go but I didn’t like the idea of a triple stack in cash.
- Another option I thought of was to play Todd Gurley/Bruce Ellington over Thielen/Ware which I honestly should have done as Gurley had a great game and Ellington was close to Thielen in points scored. I was just way too scared to fade Ware in a spot I knew everyone would be on.
The blueprint will stay the same for week 14 with maybe a couple minor changes. It’s nice to continue the win streak in head-to-heads but missing out in double ups the last couple weeks has really hurt our rake.
Results (11-2 record)
Week 13: 155.26 points, won 68 percent of head-to-heads
: 153.42 points, won 64 percent of head-to-heads
: 161.92 points, won 96 percent of head-to-heads
: 140.22 points, won 78 percent of head-to-heads
: 149.28 points, won 76 percent of head-to-heads
148.9 points, won 83 percent of head-to-heads
122.2 points, won 64 percent of head-to-heads
144.5 points, won 48 percent of head-to-heads
121.52 points, won 22 percent of head-to-heads
213.18 points, won 79 percent of head-to-heads Fantasy Football