Three-game slates are meant to be uneventful, but last night was anything but. Jimmy Butler left sick, Anthony Davis got hurt, and Derrick Rose created one of the weirder stories in sports (which is still ongoing). Tonight we get back to normal and we have nine games to tackle this evening. You’re immediately looking to the Bulls for value as Dwayne Wade and Jimmy Butler are already out, so you should be able to build a studs-and-duds lineup with relative ease.
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For those of you following my weird streaks right now, I have currently won nine straight days on DraftKings, and lost seven straight days on FanDuel.
Bulls represent top values on FanDuel 1/10
Damian Lillard, POR
The ability to play multiple Bulls at 5k or below today really gives you carte blanche to play whatever studs you want. Harden obviously has to be your first choice, but I actually think Lillard is a strong second even with opportunity cost at the position super low (see the Bulls values below). Lillard ranks tenth in the league in usage rate and is taking on a Lakers team that ranks sixth in pace, 29th in overall team defense, and allows the seventh most FPPG to opposing PGs. The spread of this game is one point and the O/U is a whopping 223 which is tied for the highest of the night.
Other options – John Wall, Isaiah Thomas, Kyle Lowry
Mid-tier options – Goran Dragic, Dennis Schroder, D’Angelo Russell, George Hill
Michael Carter-Williams/Jerian Grant, CHI
Assuming Rajon Rondo remains out of the rotation, these two Bulls guards are going to log major minutes and see huge usage boosts with the Bulls’ two biggest usage players (by far) out of the lineup. The matchup against the Wizards is largely neutral, but this play is more about price and opportunity cost. One of these PGs should be locked into your cash, and both are viable if you want to load up elsewhere.
Other options – Darren Collison, Ty Lawson, Tony Parker
James Harden, HOU
Will all the Bulls values (and Jeremy Lamb who we’ll discuss momentarily), Harden is a lock for cash. His price is still a value at $11,700 as his baseline is 53.64 FD points and his value threshold sits at right about 51 points. There is mild blowout risk (Rockets favored by 9) but Harden’s usage and efficiency rates are so high that he hits value long before the game ends anyway. Nicolas Batum is not around to help guard him and the Hornets rank 25th in defensive efficiency against guards. Lock him in.
Other options – Giannis Antetokounmpo, DeMar DeRozan
Mid-tier options – Bradley Beal, Klay Thompson
Jeremy Lamb, CHA
You could argue that Lamb is a better value than all the Bulls players tonight. It was predicted that he would start in Nicolas Batum’s absence and play major minutes. Both came true last game and Lamb posted 28.1 FD points in 29 minutes against an incredibly tough opponent in the Spurs. Tonight he gets a much easier time with the Rockets who are much faster in pace and rank 24th in defensive efficiency against SGs. Lamb averages over a FanDuel point per minute, and his price of $4000 is flat-out wrong.
Other options – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Tim Hardaway Jr, Sean Kilpatrick, Rodney Hood, Marco Belinelli, Garrett Temple