In this series, I’ll highlight six guys that my PGA models identify as high-upside players who are projected for low ownership. Note: these will not always be my core plays. For my core, find me in FTA+ chat each week!
Finally, here’s a breakdown of my model. You’ll find I refer to the top 10/3/1 percentages a lot. In my mind, Cut Odds is a floor projection, Earnings is a median/average projection, and the probabilities of a top 10/3/1 finish are akin to a ceiling projection.
Let’s get to it.
Course Breakdown – Augusta
For a full course breakdown (and core plays), check out my article from yesterday.
It wasn’t long ago that Jason Day was routinely priced at the top. My main, “true talent” model gives him the fourth highest odds to win, so perhaps he still belongs up there. There are a handful of things I really like about Jason this week, starting with an ownership projection around 10%. Additionally, he’s gained strokes off the tee in five straight events, giving him an 8th place ranking in my recent form model. His ability off the tee and his continued rank among the best putters in the game gives him an acceptable course fit.
He is 8th in top ten odds, 8th in earnings projection, and 12th in odds to make the cut. This is a GPP play, so I’m happy to look past the made cut odds in order to grab his upside at low ownership.
Woodland’s only “weakness” is his 27th Course Fit rank, but he’s priced as the 30th most expensive player. His other ranks jump off the page:
- Recent Form – 13th
- Top Ten Odds – 21st
- Earnings Projection – 13th
- Made Cut Odds – 10th
Woodland is elite off the tee, but his irons have taken a massive jump forward, as well. He now gains over half a stroke per round in each ball striking category. Finally, his 23.12% birdie or better percentage really lends itself to DK scoring.
It’s funny for me to hype Webb Simpson, because I’ve often called him overpriced and over-owned. Yet here he is, at $7400 and projected for under 10% ownership. The crazy thing is my Course Fit Model says he’s perfect for Augusta, giving him the 10th highest rating of all. Due to his shockingly low ownership, I’m currently calling him a core play.
He’s below average off the tee, but consistently gains strokes in all other categories. It’s no surprise then that he pops in the course fit model, since it calls for balanced play.
There are only two things that stand out to me for Wise, but they’re key. First, he is the only player in the field that my models say is at least fairly priced who projects for < 5% ownership. Second, he has an elite birdie or better percentage, suggesting he can outscore his finishing position on DraftKings. 23.98% is the highest BoB percentage of anyone below Phil Mickelson in DK price. His course fit, recent form, and true talent metrics (top 10, earnings, made cut projections) all suggest he is fairly priced. In a week where he has higher odds than usual to make the cut, I love his upside at next to no ownership.
Fade – Matt Kuchar
Ownership. That’s 90% of the argument here, but I’ll present to you:
You can probably guess who these players are. Player A is Webb Simpson and Player B is Kuchar. They project nearly identically, yet Webb is $500 cheaper and comes at 1/3 the ownership.
There’s a second takeaway here. Kuchar is the 20th ranked player, yet is projected for the highest ownership. More than that, his upside appears limited considering he has just the 25th highest odds for a top 10 and the 36th highest projected earnings. In other words, fading him is less likely to backfire even if it doesn’t pay off by way of a missed cut or otherwise disappointing week for golf’s newest villain.
Fade – Charley Hoffman
Hoffman is projected for 15% ownership after a good week at the Valero. More than that, his ownership is reflecting his fast starts at Augusta. To me, both aspects scream bad process, because neither his course fit nor recent form rankings crack the top 50. In fact, he is 49th overall in my rankings. I get the sentiment, but this is an easy fade for me.
Good luck this week and find me on Twitter at @alexblickle1!Fantasy Golf