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In this series, I’ll highlight six guys that my PGA models identify as high-upside players who are projected for low ownership. Note: these will not always be my core plays. For my core, find me in FTA+ chat each week!
Finally, here’s a breakdown of my model. You’ll find I refer to the top 10/3/1 percentages a lot. In my mind, Cut Odds is a floor projection, Earnings is a median/average projection, and the probabilities of a top 10/3/1 finish are akin to a ceiling projection. In GPP, we want ceiling above all else!
Let’s get to it.
Course Breakdown – TPC Sawgrass
For my extensive breakdown of Sawgrass, check out my article from Monday here.
The Six – Picks!!!
There’s no way around it: Rose was downright terrible last weekend. However, I’m willing to overlook this for two reasons. First, Rose actually gained strokes last week in ball striking, and second, his win at the Farmer’s came after another week in which he disappointed. In other words, I’m not going to overreact to one event, and instead concentrate on his overall numbers, understanding Rose has already shown he’s capable of rebounding immediately with a strong event.
Furthermore, while last week’s performance is driving his projected ownership below 10%, his course fit is excellent. He gains over half a stroke per round off the tee and his long-term SGATG is second highest in my database.
Rose is third in top 10 odds, suggesting he’s underpriced to go along with the ownership discount.
Let’s take a quick look at how the model likes Rahm – 5th in earnings projection, 5th in top 10 odds, 3rd in made cut odds, and 5th in top 3 odds. Wow.
Rahm is 12th in the CH Model, mostly thanks to a robust .9+ long term SGOTT. In fact, here’s a crazy stat for you: Rahm has gained strokes off the tee in every single event he’s played since The Memorial in June of …2017. Like Rose, Rahm is an absolute stud expected to come in comfortably below 10%.
Finau has been one of the industry’s favorite plays for the past year and a half, his price is down, and yet he’s projected for under 10% ownership? While he hasn’t contended this year, his ball striking has been great, and a long-term above average short game paired with his elite driving means he’s a good fit for the course. His short game has been off lately, so his CH Model Rank isn’t the best, but that’s fine with me because my main model suggests he’s the best golfer in the field priced below Cantlay and Fleetwood.
Part of the reason Finau will be so low owned is concentrated ownership around him. Hideki, Adam Scott, Molinari, and Cantlay are all within $300 of Tony and projected for over 15% ownership. Finau, the forgotten man, is someone I want to target heavily.
Hatton has the third highest long-term SGATG in my database and surprisingly gains almost a quarter-stroke off the tee. That combo has him 14th in the CH Model at 3% projected ownership. This is a double-leverage spot, as RCB projects as chalk and is 75th in the CH Model (more on RCB in a bit).
Hatton’s Earnings projection, made cut odds, and top 10/3/1 odds are all right on par with RCB’s and ahead of almost everyone else around him. Simply put, he shouldn’t be sub-5%, so if he stays that way, I will load up.
It’s funny to think about List as someone having a good short game since he’s terrible on the greens, but his SGATG numbers are quite good. So good, in fact, that combined with his elite driving he is 7th in the CH Model and just $7000. List has been maddeningly inconsistent at times, but the model has been telling us for a while now that he’s someone we should expect to break out. The model told us Moli would do so last year and Mitchell this year, so I will continue to believe in List’s chances to do the same.
Plus, at a projected ownership of 5%, you don’t need much exposure to benefit from a great week from Luuuke.
Fade – Rafa Cabrera Bello
If you’re new to my article, you’ll notice one thing quickly: I’m not afraid to take risks, and one of those risks this week is calling RCB my fade of the week.
To begin, RCB actually rates out quite well in my model, gains a bit off the tee, and is neutral with his short game. It’s surprising then, to see him 75th in the CH Model. The reason for this is he’s gained strokes around the green in just two of his last eight events, and he’s consistently gaining more strokes with his irons and putter than with his driver. As a popular play, I will look to pivot off him with numerous combinations.
Good luck this week and find me on Twitter at @alexblickle1!Fantasy Golf