In this series, I’ll highlight six guys that my PGA model identifies as high-upside players who are projected for low ownership. Note: these will not be my core plays, and some may not even find their way into my lines depending on my strategy for the week. I recommend building a core and finding one or two of these guys who fit your build to give you GPP-winning upside. For my core, find me in FTA+ chat each week!
Finally, here’s a breakdown of my model. You’ll find I refer to the top 10/3/1 percentages a lot. In my mind, Cut Odds is a floor projection, Earnings is a median/average projection, and the probabilities of a top 10/3/1 finish are akin to a ceiling projection. In GPP, we want ceiling above all else!
Let’s get to it.
Rahm is first in my model in the big three categories: Earnings projection, Cut Odds, and top 10 probability. People appear to be opting for the discount with JT and the course history (bleh) star, Hideki Matsuyama. The best player in the field at low-ish ownership? Yes please.
DataGolf has some awesome tools. My current favorite is their 50-round rolling average in true strokes-gained. While he doesn’t pop in my model, it’s impossible to ignore this trend, considering he’ll be significantly lower owned than all the players around him.
Bubba is the only player I make a point to check his course history each week. He has won multiple times at three separate courses, accounting for half of his career wins. Bubba has spoken extensively about how much he relies on visualization, and how he only hits shots he can “see”. As such, the age-old narrative that some courses just fit his eye more actually does make sense. Bubba has the eighth highest Course History Index at TPC Scottsdale. More importantly, his top 10/3/1 percentages really stand out, while his incredible SGOTT gives him a higher made cut percentage than most would expect. His recent form is going to bring him a really low ownership.
Holmes will be <5% owned and the model loves him! JB gains over half a stroke per round off the tee and is a very high-variance player (see the model breakdown for why we like the high BA/high BoB combo). Consequently, his top 10/3/1 odds really stand out above the players around him, yet people aren’t even considering him.
Niemann has established himself as a premiere ball striker, gaining over half a stroke per round off the tee and even more with his irons. His putting has been downright terrible recently, scaring people off him, but not us. Even with the struggling putter, he’s made nearly 80% of his cuts and has top tens in over a quarter of his PGA Tour events. He’s #toocheap.
Mitchell was a chalky MC last week, so naturally his ownership will be suppressed this week. The model has liked Mitchell more than most for a while due to his superb performance off the tee. While he has maintained that driving ability, his iron play has steadily gone from a weakness to a strength:
Like JB, Mitchell is a high variance player that the model believes will see a large uptick in his earnings per event and top 10% moving forward. I’m buying it.Fantasy Golf