Big Bucks | FanDuel Daily NBA 2/15


Today is a run of emotions for me.  We have an epic 14-game slate to tackle which is always fun, but it also unfortunately marks the last full day of DFS (unless you count the meager two-game slate tomorrow) before we get hit with the All-Star Break and have NOTHING to watch for over a week.  Let’s make the most of it this evening and get in on the action, and you’re going to want to target some key Bucks players as they get a cookie of a matchup with the Nets.

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Big Bucks | FanDuel Daily NBA 2/15

POINT GUARD

TOP PLAY

Russell Westbrook, OKC ($12,400)

Every single stud is in action tonight, so there will be some high scores to win.  You can’t do TOO much of a balanced lineup and will need at least one of these guys to rack up the points.  Westbrook is the highest priced but with good reason, and you should give him a serious look tonight.  The Knicks have allowed the most FPPG the last ten games and have also ranked 29th in overall team defense in that time frame.  Westbrook leads the league in usage rate and is averaging a triple-double.  He’s underpriced even at $12,400.

Other options – Isaiah Thomas, Stephen Curry, Eric Bledsoe, Kyrie Irving, Damian Lillard, Kyle Lowry (all are viable secondary cash options)

Mid-tier options – Mike Conley, Kemba Walker, Jeff Teague, Ricky Rubio, Dennis Schroder

 

VALUE PLAY

Darren Collison, SAC ($5900)

There is severe blowout risk tonight in the game between the Kings and Warriors (Golden State is favored by 17), but Collison’s minutes should be stable anyway since Sacramento is so thin at the guard position.  Collison has played 36, 38, 44, 41, and 40 minutes the last five games and the Warriors rank second in pace factor.  Collison’s usage is usually higher than it was last night but DaMarcus Cousins shot the ball every time he touched it against the Lakers.  Collison’s price is still not near high enough for his role.

Other options – D’Angelo Russell, Jameer Nelson, Tyler Johnson, Malcolm Brogdon, Austin Rivers

 

SHOOTING GUARD

TOP PLAY

Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL ($10,800)

I have no issue whatsoever ranking Giannis over Harden tonight, as the Bucks are my primary focus.  He’s seen a sharp spike in both usage and rebounding rates with Jabari Parker lost for the year, and has averaged 38 MPG since Jabari went down.  The Bucks are only favored by five points and have a healthy team total of 116 points, and the Nets rank first in pace, 28th in overall team defense, and 29th against opposing guards.  They also turn the ball over the most and Giannis can rack up steals and blocks.

Other options – James Harden, DeMar DeRozan

Mid-tier options – Nicolas Batum, Devin Booker, Klay Thompson

 

VALUE PLAY

[drizzle]

Victor Oladipo, OKC ($6000)

Oladipo’s floor is lower than it should be given the minutes he plays, but that’s an unfortunate consequence of playing alongside Russell Westbrook. I still have no problem rostering Dipo tonight against the Knicks, who not only are allowing the most FPPG over the last ten games but also rank 28th against opposing SGs.  Oladipo has been hot from downtown lately and the Knicks allow the second highest 3PT% in the league.

Other options – Will Barton, Gary Harris, Marcus Smart, Tyreke Evans, Evan Fournier, Khris Middleton (I know he’s still on a minutes cap, but all Bucks have extra intrigue today), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

 

SMALL FORWARD

TOP PLAY

Kawhi Leonard, SA ($9900)

I can’t pay LeBron’s price tag today on the second game of a b2b with so many other studs, and Durant has too much blowout risk.  That’s not to say Kawhi Leonard is only a consolation prize, as he has the skills, opportunity, and matchup to outscore those two guys tonight anyway.  Kawhi has posted a 34% usage rate and 22% assist rate since Pau Gasol went down, and has now scored over 30 real points in four straight contests while averaging 49.9 FD PPG.  The Magic rank 20th in defensive efficiency against SFs and will suffer greatly in the rebounding department with Serge Ibaka out of town.

Other options – LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Paul George

Mid-tier options – Andrew Wiggins, Gordon Hayward, Wilson Chandler

 

VALUE PLAY

Michael Beasley, MIL ($4900)

Beasley is making an impact for the Bucks in the starting lineup, and now gets a heap of upside added on with a matchup against the Nets. They rank dead last in SFs by a long shot, and allow three more FPPG to the position than any other team.  Beasley is seeing time at the three and four and has posted a 24% usage rate with Jabari Parker gone.  He played 32 minutes last game and has the capability of putting up 40+ fantasy points with that time.

Other options – Harrison Barnes, Jae Crowder, Trevor Ariza, T.J. Warren, Chandler Parsons, Terrence Ross

 

POWER FORWARD

TOP PLAY

Anthony Davis, NO ($10,900)

Nikola Jokic is incredible, but I can’t recommend him over Anthony Davis when Davis is $100 cheaper.  I know Davis’ matchup against Memphis (28th in pace, second against opposing frontcourts) is less than ideal, but Davis is easily looking at 40+ minutes tonight with Terrence Jones and Dante Cunningham already ruled out.  Davis averages 1.19 FanDuel points per minute and is fourth in the league in PER.  I’m still likely using him in only GPPs, but I do think he’s a better EV+ than Jokic.

Other options – Nikola Jokic, Blake Griffin, Paul Millsap, Draymond Green

Mid-tier options – LaMarcus Aldridge, Kristaps Porzingis

 

VALUE PLAY

Juancho Hernangomez, DEN ($4000)

The darling of Monday night is right in the mix again this evening for the short-handed Nuggets.  There is some more risk to Hernangomez’s minutes this evening as Mason Plumlee will join the fray and Wilson Chandler is likely to return as well, but I still expect Juancho to play close to 30 minutes tonight against a gigantic Timberwolves squad.  Kenneth Faried, Danilo Gallinari, and Darrell Arthur all remain out which opens up a lot of minutes for that frontcourt, and Juancho is way too cheap at $4000.

Other options – Nerlens Noel (Okafor will play), Frank Kaminsky, Marvin Williams, Dario Saric, Derrick Favors, Thon Maker (all Bucks have upside)

 

CENTER

TOP PLAY

DeMarcus Cousins, SAC ($11,100)

It’s really difficult to not call Boogie the top play at center anytime he takes the court.  He obliterated the Lakers again last night for 66.4 FD points and now his usage rate is up to 46% without Rudy Gay (surpassing even Westbrook).  The amazing thing is the fact that his assist rate is up to 31% as well (he had eight more assists last night) and the Kings are getting a huge pace boost (they’re 27th, Golden State is second).  The Warriors are struggling immensely against centers since Zaza Pachulia went down (they rank 23rd against them now) and Cousins should feast in transition. The only thing that makes me choose other top-priced guys over him (like Westbrook and Giannis) is the fact that Cousins’ upside is capped with his team being 17-point underdogs (we could see him play only 29-30 minutes tonight).  Otherwise fire him up as usual, especially with the Kings still competing for the last playoff spot.

Other options – Karl-Anthony Towns, Hassan Whiteside, Andre Drummond, Marc Gasol

Mid-tier options – Rudy Gobert, Dwight Howard, Al Horford, Greg Monroe

 

VALUE PLAY

Steven Adams, OKC ($6100)

Adams is a really safe cash target as he’s played a shade under 38 minutes per game in the month of February.  He was only able to log 19 against the Wizards last game, but that was due to foul trouble and the Knicks generate the fourth fewest fouls per game to opposing frontcourts.  Adams’ usage and rebounding rates have spiked with Enes Kanter out, and the Knicks also rank 26th against centers in addition to their other defensive woes.

Other options – Willy Hernangomez, Tyson Chandler, Clint Capela, Kelly Olynyk, Dewayne Dedmon

bucks

[/drizzle]

 

 

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