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Another big week last weekend for the team over at FTA on Sunday as we nailed the Kyle Busch and Ryan Blaney dominators. Matt Dibenedetto cutting a tire towards the end of the race kept us from takedowns, but the best part about Nascar is we get to move on and do it all again this Sunday at Auto Club Speedway. Also known as California for those who have been following Nascar for a while now, is a very fast race track. One of the fastest on the circuit. The 2 mile, low-banked, superspeedway is very similar to Michigan speedway in a track comparison, in the aspect the drivers will look to run either on the top, bottom or middle. Don’t expect many drivers to hang out too long on the bottom though, as they will eat up their tires. Something to note, it was very windy on Saturday in practice and will be the complete opposite come the green flag Sunday from a wind stand point, so don’t be surprised to see a lot of cars off balance in the early stages of Stage 1. Before we talk plays for this week, I do want to clarify, I am strictly a Draft King’s only player. All my prices and plays I will discuss in my articles will be focused around Draft Kings lineup construction and pricing. Now let’s jump into my top plays for this weekends race:
Brad Keselowski ($11,500) Starting 13th: Brad is one of, if not my favorite play’s on the weekend. Team Penske has continued to show all of 2019, how much they love this new package and this weekend is no different. Brad was 3rd fastest in 10 lap runs, top 5 in 15 lap runs and 2nd fastest in 20 lap runs. Starting 13th, he has place differential upside as well as potential dominator points gaining fastest laps on his way to the front. Consider Brad in your GPP and cash game lineups this weekend.
Martin Truex JR. ($10,000) Starting 27th: The only driver stopping Keselowski from being my top overall play on the weekend is Mr. Martin Truex JR. He will be very chalky in tournaments and cash games, so don’t be afraid to fade to be different in tournaments god forbid he has an issue. Truex offers a ton of place differential upside and dominator points from fastest laps while moving up through the field. He was not happy with his car at all this weekend so far but don’t worry, they will have it figured out come race day for one of the best 2 mile drivers in Nascar. Truex, like another driver we will discuss later in this article, runs very well at these style of tracks where there are multiple grooves, especially the top line. Lock Truex into your cash game lineups and several of your GPP lineups as well.
Kyle Busch ($12,600) Starting 4th: Mr Rowdy himself has won our team a lot of money this year in 2019. Off to a red hot start with a 2nd, 3rd, 6th and win last week at ISM Raceway. Back in 2005, Kyle won his first race here at what was once named, California Speedway. Sunday could be another historic day for Kyle as he seeks his 200th win. Kyle will be one of my potential dominators and has shown a ton speed this weekend. He was 6th in 10-lap averages, and 4th in 15-lap average in final practice. For those narrative street whispers, hop aboard this train with me in GPP’s as Kyle seeks his 200th win.
Kyle Larson ($10,800) Starting 15th: Larson is one of, if not the best 2 mile driver in all of NASCAR. Pay attention on Sunday during the race as when drivers on longer runs struggle to find speed, the driver of the #42 Chevrolet will be in that top groove hugging the wall. Truex and Larson thrive at these types of race tracks for that specific reason. Starting in the middle of the pack, Larson offers place differential upside as well as fastest laps upside while moving through the field. Larson is in play in all formats for me this weekend so definitely get him into your lineups early and often come Sunday.
Kurt Busch ($9,100) Starting 21st: Kurt has been one of the more consistent drivers in Nascar throughout his career here with an average finish of 13.6. Similar to his brother Kyle, Kurt has had a ton of success so far in 2019 with this new package with 3 Top 10 finishes since Daytona. Kurt offers a lot of place differential upside this week starting in the middle of the pack. Kurt like Truex, is a cash game staple this weekend. Be wary he will carry ownership in GPP, but don’t shy away, I will have plenty of exposure across my lineups on Sunday.
Erik Jones ($8,200) Starting 18th: Jones has shown a ton of speed all weekend, running 5th fastest in 10 lap runs, and was at the top of the charts in 15 lap runs. Jones did not make a 20 lap run which is a bit concerning for his long run speed but after seeing he got fast from 10 lap to 15 lap, I expect him to have similar long run speed to Team Penske. Jones is in play in all formats for me this weekend, but be cautious with him in cash especially as he tends to take more risks as a younger driver.
Alex Bowman ($7,000) Starting 23rd: Bowman has shown a ton of speed all weekend as well as most of Team Hendrick. He had the 4th fastest 10 lap and the 6th fastest 15 lap averages. Starting 23rd he offers a ton of upside for place differential points. Bowman offers a ton of salary relief this week and should be looked at in all formats.
Value Plays: These drivers are always the least attractive when constructing your lineups but they are 100% necessary in order to pay up for the Kyle Busch’s and Martin Truex’s of the world. Instead of picking just one for you guys this week, I decided to add a few for you. Michael McDowell is my favorite value play this week at $5,800. Starting 29th, he offers a lot of place differential upside at his price tag. Matt DiBenedetto starting 24th, like McDowell, offers place differential upside and has shown a lot of speed this year with his new team. When looking at value plays, I like to look for guys who offer high place differential upside and tend to stay out of trouble and give me the highest probility to finish the race. Other value plays to consider for GPP: Paul Menard, Ryan Preece, Bubba Wallace and Matt Tifft.
Favorite Team: I love Team Penske this week, Keselowski, Logano, Blaney and Menard are all in play in GPP’s. They have shown a ton of speed all season and that continued this weekend. Keselowski, Logano and Blaney were 3 of the fastest car’s in long runs in practice on Saturday.
Proceed with Caution: Stewart Haus Racing has had a bit of an up and down weekend. Top driver Kevin Harvick was down on his 10 lap average and the team as a whole was slow on long runs. I will have exposure to Kevin Harvick in GPP’s as a potential dominator Starting 2nd but I would be extremely cautious with Almirola and Bowyer. Almirola Starting 3rd will need to lead laps and gain fastest laps to have enough upside from the 3rd position and I don’t think he has that. Fastest laps Sunday will come throughout the field with drafting, not as much from the front of the pack and the leader. Daniel Suarez is in play in GPP’s as he offers place differential upside starting 20th.
Potential Dominators: Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick and Ryan Blaney. Other drivers offer fastest laps dominator points upside as discussed in the article but these drivers I expect to have a chance to lead a good amount of laps Sunday.
My pick to win: After reading my article you should be able to figure out what direction I’m going here. Hopefully you guessed Team Penske driver, Brad Keselowski. He has the best car so far all weekend and I expect that to continue Sunday and as finds himself in Victory Lane.
Be sure to jump in chat all day Sunday as I will be answering lineup questions and releasing a few more of my favorite plays!NASCAR