The Old White TPC
The Old White plays near tour average across the board. Using Fantasy National’s course breakdown, two things pop: fairways are easier to hit here than most (guys who gain off the tee mostly due to distance get a bump) and par 5 scoring is a definite key. Let’s get to it.
Tony Finau is the highest projected player in my models. However, he’s also expected to carry the highest ownership.
The course should fit Bubba Watson really well. He’s coming off a win and is having arguably the best season of his career. His iron play has been good, albeit inconsistent this year. His driving has been exceptional.
Phil Mickelson is interesting this week. He’s third in my models behind Finau and Bubba (nicely done on the pricing, DK), but there is an argument for paying up for him. His biggest weakness is accuracy off the tee. At a course that has historically seen a high percentage of fairways hit, Phil’s weakness could be minimized. This would also set him up to take full advantage of his .77 strokes gained per round approaching the greens. I think he’ll be the lowest owned of the top tier.
Last week I suggested Webb Simpson’s elevated success could be unsustainable and he missed the cut. He’s gained nearly all of his advantage this year putting. I’ll continue to fade him.
Russell Henley should be chalky and while he rates fine in my models, he certainly doesn’t pop. Xander Schauffele rates slightly better and will be lower owned. Schauffele has shown himself to be a par 5 specialist in his young career.
Let me start by saying Jimmy Walker is way overpriced. He doesn’t belong anywhere near this tier. He’s losing nearly half a stroke per round off the tee.
Three plays really pop in my model from this tier:
- Joaquin Niemann is gaining over .65 strokes per round off the tee and over a stroke per round approaching the green. In fact, he has gained strokes in both strokes gained statistics in every event he has played. He’ll be quite popular this week, but he’s such a great play I think you want to eat the chalk.
- Charles Howell III continues to be a favorite of my model. Very few players are as consistent as he is from a ball striking perspective.
- JB Holmes missed the cut last week but was in excellent form prior to that. His iron play slipped last week, but his driving was as stellar as usual. He’ll be high owned, too, so I prefer Howell in GPPs.
Keegan Bradley pops in the model. He’s gaining over a quarter stroke per round off the tee and over a full stroke per round with his irons.
Kevin Streelman is another excellent ball striker. He is a great pivot off Keegan, as I expect Streelman to be about half as owned.
Brian Gay is projected to be chalky, but my models peg him as a bad play. He’s coming off an excellent ball striking tournament, but he hasn’t previously shown that kind of ball striking talent.
There are a number of plays I like in this range. Let’s identify the chalk and their contrarian pivots.
- Aaron Wise – While he’s gained around .4 strokes per round off the tee on the year, his ball striking has been extremely volatile. This would make him better suited for GPPs if not for his ownership projection.
- Ryan Armour is projected to be popular, but my models do not like him. His ball striking has been underwhelming.
- Andrew Putnam was justifiably chalky last week, and finished 27th. However, he lost strokes with his irons and matched the field off the tee. I can’t justify his high ownership this week.
- Kevin Chappell was in awful form before making the cut in the US Open. Finally back in action and only expected for around 10% ownership, I love him this week. He’s still gaining over half a stroke per round off the tee and just under half a stroke with his irons on the year.
- Austin Cook doesn’t exactly POP, but he does rate solidly in the models. Projected for very low ownership, he’s a great GPP play.
- Corey Conners, Brandon Harkins, and Bronson Burgoon are similar in every way from a DFS standpoint. They’re all good ball strikers, especially off the tee. They’re all projected for low ownership (Harkins may be a bit higher than the others). And, they’re all trending up. Fire away.
Jason Kokrak has burned me a couple times, but that’s his nature. He is high risk, high reward. He gains a ton off the tee so I like him once again, especially at such a cheap price.
I like Kokrak best as a pivot off a somewhat chalky (surprisingly) Robert Garrigus.
Limit your exposure to this tier as there’s plenty of value in the 7k range.
Best of luck, everyone!