Going to try to change things up a bit tonight. I’m anxious to hear the feedback in chat later! Rather than go tier by tier in price, I’m going to list my favorite per-dollar plays at each position, regardless of price, ignoring
ownership. Then, I’ll list my favorite low owned GPP plays (like Wade & Monk from last night).
Games/Teams to Target
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Boston and Charlotte get the biggest pace boosts, and Boston faces a poor defense, as well. Jrue will likely be on Kyrie, but I like all other Celts tonight.
Utah has a pace down matchup against an excellent defense. With Donovan Mitchell out, look for players like Ingles, O’Neal, and especially Rubio to be chalky. My advice in GPPs is fade them all.
The Rockets are in a pace up spot against a bad defense. If CP3 misses this game, James Harden would be a lock for me, and Gordon and Capela would be great, as well. If CP3 does play, he, Harden, and Capela will all be viable.
James Harden (Iff CP3 is out)
*Update: CP3 AND Gerald Green out. Fire up Harden and Gordon
If CP3 is out, he is priority #1. Otherwise, he’s too pricey for me. His 38% usage rate over the past ten games is astounding, however, so I don’t blame you if you pay for him either way.
After three straight road games, Jrue and the Pels return home, where Jrue has been better over the past few years. Jrue is third in the NBA for the year in drives per games, and second over the past ten games. His usage rate is 24.4% on the year and up to 26.3% in the past ten. Additionally, Boston is most vulnerable against PGs. New Orleans will need Jrue to be aggressive since Boston’s interior D is so strong.
With no Jaylen Brown, Smart should see extra minutes. Smart is averaging about 19 DK pts in 23 min per game. Should he see 30 minutes, we would then expect around 25 DK points. When you add in the fact that NOP is a pace up/bad defense matchup, you have an excellent play for $4100.
All of the above PGs also have SG eligibility.
Over the past ten games, Lavine’s usage rate is holding strong at 31.5%. At this point, both his usage and production have gone on for long enough that DK’s consistent sub-$8k price for him is just silly.
The matchup is great, the minutes are up, and there’s room for a minutes bump with Brown’s absence. He’s just a solid play.
This one hurts me. I’ve been late to the Justin Holiday party all year, but back to back 40-min games has my mind changed. He’s averaging a very enticing 1.6 steals per game, but most importantly, targetting Holiday at home is a good idea. Last year, he shot 42% from 3 at home vs just 30% on the road. This year, those numbers are already at 44% and 36%. His low usage rate means a low floor, but threes and steals in big minutes give him tons of upside.
Hayward and Holiday are also SF eligible.
Over the past ten games, KD’s 35.3% usage rate only trails Harden. KD has put up back to back huge stat-lines and should
continue to carry the load for GS while Steph is out. I should note, however, that Orlando’s defense has really improved and this is a pace down game since GS is at home and playing very slow without Steph.
SA gets a pace boost against a turnover-prone team. Both of those facts are particularly appealing for Gay’s skill-set, and his rebounding upside benefits from Chicago being 26th in DEF rebound rate and 30th in overall rebound rate.
Both SFs are PF eligible.
Anthony Davis / Julius Randle
Ad if he plays, Julius if he doesn’t. It looks more likely than not that he’ll play, so I’ll focus on him: AD is averaging 63 DK points per game at home. Don’t believe in splits? He’s still averaging 59 DK points per game, making his $11.2k price tag too cheap. From a fantasy perspective, he is a step above everyone else at this point.
Horford is too cheap! The matchup is great, but even if it wasn’t, he would be hard to pass up at this price. Big Al does a little bit of everything for Boston, and if Kyrie is bottled up by Jrue the way I think he will be, Boston would be wise to get Horford more involved offensively by running sets through him.
$7800 is insane for Vuc. Find another player who averages 5 more DK points than 5x his salary. Hint: I don’t believe you can. GS’s defense has been terrible lately, and if Draymond misses, GS has no one with even a prayer of containing Vuc. I also love his minutes trend: it appears as though Vuc is now seeing mid-30s minutes in close games, up from upper-20s to low-30s earlier in the year. That minutes boost is huge for a guy averaging nearly 1.5 FPPM.
Capela tends to be more involved offensively without CP3 due to increased frequency of pick and rolls. The matchup is excellent to begin with, but Dwight out means Capela should have his way on the glass tonight.
Towns is becoming a much better defender than in years’ past, likely just due to effort. However, Minnesota is still 30th in DEF rebound rate and Tristan is second in the NBA in offensive rebounds per game over the last ten games, only trailing Andre Drummond.
Evans hasn’t seen the minutes we’ve wanted since Oladipo went out, but two of those games were blowouts, and in the last one he shot 1-12 and 0-5 from three against the Spurs. Utah has a below average defensive rating and Tyreke is capable of breaking the slate. Like Wade and Monk last night, the better he plays, the more minutes he’ll get. His elevated price should keep his ownership level very low.
I always like taking a chance on Favors when Mitchell is out as he is quietly an excellent passer (helps ignite a desperate offense). Now that he’s coming off the bench, I expect him to be extremely low owned, yet carry a higher usage rate than usual. He saw 24 minutes in his first game off the bench, right in line with his usual workload. If Gobert gets in foul trouble, he, too, could break the slate.