Today I am going to take a look at some players on Draftsteet.com that should be able to exceed their value this week. All stats and pricing are related to draftstreet.com; this is not saying these players would not succeed on other sites, just tread lightly as other sites have different pricing and different scoring.
Chad Henne ($8,944): I know some of you may be thinking why Chad Henne? Take a look at Henne’s price-tag and then remember he will be facing the Broncos who should jump out to a lead which will force Henne to throw the ball more which means more fantasy points. Let’s not forget either Henne has two strong wide receivers now in Justin Blackmon and Cecil Short. Denver has allowed the fifth most fantasy points to opposing QB’s at Draftstreet.com due to all the teams having to pass the ball to try to play catchup. On a site like Draftstreet who requires two QB’s Henne could be that cheap option so you can target one of the high priced QB’s as your other option.
Joe Flacco ($10,113): If you do not feel comfortable with Henne as a cheap 2nd QB option then I would lean towards Joe Flacco. My projections this week has Flacco pegged at 18.8 fantasy points, which is 5.1 fantasy points above his average at Draftstreet. Flacco gets a matchup with the Green Bay Packers who are allowing the ninth most fantasy points to opposing QB’s. Oddsmakers have a total set at 48.5 on this game which is telling me it should be a shootout which will play into our favor with a reasonable priced Flacco.
Doug Martin ($11,253): Martin gets himself a reasonable matchup this week with the Eagles defense that is allowing 94.6 yards per game on the ground and 4.6 receptions and 37.4 yards through the air to opposing running backs. A big reason why I like Martin so much is he has a rookie QB at the helm which I feel TB is going to rely on their RB a bit more this week to take the pressure of the rookie. My projections have Martin pegged at 17.9 fantasy points this week which is 6.3 fantasy points more than his average. Martin should have a strong day against a struggling Philly defense which should see him exceed his value.
Ray Rice ($11,101): Last week John Harbaugh mentioned how he wants to get Ray Rice more involved in the game. When the clock struck zero at the end of last week’s Baltimore and Miami game, Rice finished with 27 carries for 74 yards with two TD’s while also catching six of his seven targets out of the backfield for 28 yards. Oh yeah Baltimore went on the road as a 2.5 point dog and won that game. The reason I am brining this up is if Baltimore is going to give Rice that kind of workload again this week he should be able to exceed his value. I have Rice pegged at 16.8 fantasy points, which is 4.8 fantasy points higher than his season average.
Vincent Jackson ($9,463): To me it seems like Draftstreet has no faith in TB’s passing game this week since Jackson is priced cheap for a guy who is playing a defense that ranks dead last for fantasy points allowed to opposing WR’s. There are a few things you have to look at with Jackson for this week. We already know he is playing the hideous Eagles secondary, Jackson though is coming off a bye week so I am sure QB Mike Glennon and he worked on their timing and also the week four game against Arizona Jackson was targeted 11 times by Glennon, which is telling me Glennon has the faith in Jackson. My numbers have Jackson projected at 15.4 fantasy points, which is six points higher than his season average. For this price Jackson should be able to exceed his value against the struggling Eagles defense.
A.J. Green ($11,738): I mentioned A.J. Green in yesterday’s article for fanduel.com value plays. Green is making the cut for Draftstreet.com value plays as well. This week Green gets a matchup with the Buffalo Bills who are allowing the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing WR’s. My numbers have Green pegged at 17.5 fantasy points this week which is 3.6 higher than his season average and with the way Green excels against below average defenses we should see that 17.5 come at ease for him.
Jordan Reed ($5.247): I brought Reed’s name into the mix yesterday for fanduel.com value plays and from the looks of it he should be able to return some value on draftstreet.com also this week. Reed will take on a Cowboys defense that ranks dead last for fantasy points allowed to opposing TE’s. My numbers have Reed projected for 9.4 fantasy points on draftstreet.com which is 1.7 fantasy points above his average. Washington had the week off last week and I am sure they will be watching the game film of how Denver exploited that opposing TE weakness which should lead to the Redskins using that to their advantage. If Fred Davis does not play this week Reed should be able to exceed his value.
Brent Celek ($5,288): I know most people like to take one of the top TE’s since you are able to find value elsewhere, my thought though is if you can get that value TE then you can spend bigger at positions where the players are consistent. This week Celek gets a matchup with a TB defense that is allowing the ninth most fantasy points to opposing TE’s. A big key to Celek this week is if Nick Foles is starting he is going to need Celek as his security blanket just like last week in which he relied on for a touchdown with his TE. My projections have Celek at 8.4 fantasy points this week which is up from his 7.0 fantasy points on the season. Outside of McCoy and DeSean Jackson Philly does not have much else for weapons, which leads me to believe Celek will get his targets.