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    Fantasy Football 2014 – A look ahead, Thoughts and Observations For Dynasty Teams

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    In the unlikely event your league has a meaningful game week 17, the 2013 fantasy football season has come to a close. It’s time to look ahead to 2014 and get a handle on where to rank the players. There’s been a decent amount of movement in the rankings and this is true at all positions, except maybe kicker. Also, there are some pretty serious prospects in the upcoming rookie draft.

    An anomaly took place in one of my money leagues. A team with Philip Rivers, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Josh Gordon,  Julian Edelman, Jimmy Graham, Steven Hauschka, Detroit Lion D/St lost the week 16 superbowl to a team with Peyton Manning, Eddie Lacy, Frank Gore, Andre Johnson, Torrey Smith, T.Y. Hilton, Phil Dawson and the Carolina D/ST. Who’da thunk it? And I really could use the money. These things happen, and even if I maxed out my bench, I still would have lost.snotbubble

    The reason I mention this? Even if you own the top players at four different positions (RB’s count twice) does not guarantee a championship trophy and check. It certainly bodes well for the upcoming season which can’t start soon enough. Every team that was heavily favored and lost, as well as those who were knocked out early by injury or player stupidity, agree.

    So how does this impact 2014? You may ask. A couple of usual suspects are no longer the consensus top picks at their positions. Initially. Adrian Petterson and Calvin Johnson are candidates for downward movement on the ranker. Adrian’s concerns are age, wear and tear, poor QB play and bad team management. Also, the emergence of Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy as legitimate and long term superstars in great situations. This puts downward pressure on Adrian’s reign as the number one guy . A couple of other RB’s are making a case for the top four or five, as well. Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch and DeMarco Murray deserve consideration. Murray would be a serious threat if he didn’t miss four games a year, and Lynch, with a better WR presence, would not not have to take such a beating and would certainly have more room to run. He’s not doing all that badly as is, but c’mon. Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin and Zach Miller do not command the respect necessary to elevate Lynch to the top spot. A healthy Percy Harvin will go a long way to that end, but it may be too late. Lynch could move on, and Harvin may never be healthy enough to play a full season. Forte is as valuable as any player in the PPR formatted leagues, and had an excellent year for the standard scoring leagues, as well.

    Calvin Johnson is the best wide receiver in football. No one else to throw to, except Bush, a knucklehead QB and terrible coaching are his issues. If Calvin is triple teamed, Stafford and his coaches have no idea what to do. It is a bad situation on a bad football team. The Lions have the best WR, one of the better running backs, a QB who throws for close to 5,000 yards per year and one of the best defensive lines in the NFL. Yet, in a season where the other teams in the division are not good enough or healthy enough to compete, the Lions just can’t or won’t get it together. It’s hard to bump Calvin down, but over in Cleveland, Josh Gordon, with literally no running game or QB (Brandon Weeden, Brian Hoyer and Jason Campbell!!!!!) is the top fantasy WR after missing the first two games. You have to go back a long way to find a year when Calvin wasn’t the top WR. This is really some accomplishment for Gordon, and if he hasn’t passed Calvin Johnson as the top WR going in to the 2014 fantasy season, then he’s at least pulled even, for now. At the very least he’s made it easier on fantasy owners who missed the opportunity to own Calvin Johnson. At the beginning of the year I argued that Dez Bryant would be the guy to take over the number two spot and make a challenge for number one. This may still happen, but right now, A.J. Green has been passed by Josh Gordon.

    This is for a high-numbered keeper and or dynasty league. The true dynasty team s (20 – 53 keepers plus developmental/underclass college players) have a ranker that differs somewhat from what is posted below, but can be useful for them too.

    Dynasty and keeper top 150

    1. LeSean McCoy
    2. Jamaal Charles
    3. Calvin Johnson
    4. Josh Gordon
    5. Marshawn Lynch
    6. A.J. Green
    7. Eddie Lacy
    8. Jimmy Graham
    9. Aaron Rodgers
    10. Matt Forte
    11. Adrian Peterson
    12. Dez Bryant
    13. Drew Brees
    14. Demaryious Thomas
    15. Andrew Luck
    16. Julio Jones
    17. Doug Martin
    18. Giovani Bernard
    19. Randall Cobb
    20. DeMarco Murray
    21. Alfred Morris
    22. Cam Newton
    23. C.J. Spiller
    24. Rob Gronkowski
    25. Antonio Brown
    26. Jordy Nelson
    27. Le’veon Bell
    28. Joicque Bell
    29. Zac Stacy
    30. Knowshon Moreno
    31. Victor Cruz
    32. Russell Wilson
    33. Brandon Marshall
    34. DeSean Jackson
    35. Alshon Jeffrey
    36. Trent Richardson
    37. Ray Rice
    38. Larry Fitzgerald
    39. RGIII
    40. Hakeem Nicks
    41. Matt Ryan
    42. David Wilson
    43. Roddy White
    44. Vincent Jackson
    45. Percy Harvin
    46. Torrey Smith
    47. Justin Blackmon
    48. Colin Kaepernick
    49. Andre Johnson
    50. Darren McFadden
    51. Stevan Ridley
    52. Reggie Bush
    53. Mike Wallace
    54. Pierre Garcon
    55. Dwayne Bowe
    56. DeAndre Hopkins
    57. Arian Foster
    58. Eric Decker
    59. Chris Johnson
    60. Maurice Jones – Drew
    61. Marcus Lattimore
    62. Peyton Manning
    63. Lamar Miller
    64. Tom Brady
    65. Matthew Stafford
    66. Nick Foles
    67. Julius Thomas
    68. Keenan Allen
    69. Marques Colston
    70. Ryan Matthews
    71. Steve Johnson
    72. Rashard Mendenhall
    73. Ben Tate
    74. Cordarrelle Patterson
    75. Shane Vereen
    76. Greg Olsen
    77. Philip Rivers
    78. Tony Romo
    79. Danny Amendola
    80. Wes Welker
    81. T.Y. Hilton
    82. Tavon Austin
    83. Steven Jackson
    84. Greg Jennings
    85. Vernon Davis
    86. Jordon Cameron
    87. Monte Ball
    88. Daren Sproles
    89. Michael Crabtree
    90. Kyle Rudolph
    91. Owen Daniels
    92. Bernard Pierce
    93. Pierre Thomas
    94. Frank Gore
    95. Sammy Watkins – best in this rookie class no matter where he goes
    96. Kaeem Carey – if he declares
    97. Lache Seastrunk
    98. Teddy Bridgewater – Houston or Cleveland, probably.
    99. Blake Bortles – Has a Roethisberger type game
    100. Johnny Football Manziel
    101. Bishop Sankey – if he delares
    102. Melvin Gordon – one never knows with Wisconsin backs
    103. Carlos Hyde
    104. Marquis Lee – probably will declare
    105. Mike Evans – Brandon Marshall-like
    106. Kendall Wright
    107. Charles Simms
    108. Cecil Shorts III
    109. Golden Tate
    110. Tre Mason
    111. Andre Williams
    112. Christine Michael
    113. Marion Grice
    114. James Wilder Jr.
    115. Robert Woods
    116. Mike Williams
    117. Mark Ingram
    118. Rashad Jennings
    119. Andre Ellington
    120. Ryan Tannehill
    121. Michael Floyd
    122. Chris Ivory
    123. Kelvin Benjamin – Looked great reeling in Winston’s mis-throws.
    124. Reuben Randle
    125. Danny Woodhead
    126. Eric Ebron – can catch anything he gets his hands on
    127. Jason Witten
    128. Jonathan Stewart
    129. DeAngelo Williams
    130. Robert Turbin
    131. Jace Amaro – another good dual  threat (catch/block) TE
    132. Marlon Brown
    133. Emanuel Sanders
    134. Anquan Boldin
    135. Markus Wheaton
    136. Austin Seferian – Jenkins – Has that Gronk look to his game
    137. Da’Rrick Rogers
    138. Reggie Wayne
    139. Jonathan Franklin
    140. Jeelen Strong – rounds out a strong rookie class of impact WR’s.
    141. Bilal Powell
    142. Daniel Thomas
    143. Stepfan Taylor
    144. Daryl Richardson
    145. Knile Davis
    146. Brett Carr
    147. Mike Glennon
    148. Jeremy Maclin
    149. Denarious Moore
    150. Riley Cooper
    151. Martellis Bennett
    152. James Jones
    153. Aaron Dobson
    154. Lagarrett Blount
    155. Allen Robinson
    156. Odell Beckham
    157. Terrance Williams
    158. Jay Cutler
    159. Zack Ertz
    160. Coby Fleener
    161. Marvin Jones
    162. Rod Srteater
    163. Julian Edelman
    164. Jerrel Jernigan
    165. Jeremy Kerley
    166. Vincent Brown
    167. Donald Brown
    168. Bobby Rainey
    169. Edwin Baker
    170. Quintin Patton
    171. Chris Givens

    This is all very preliminary as we won’t see any player movement, the draft or deals for a few months. But since we’re all bored stiff with no fantasy football for a while, at least you have this list to mull over and comment on.

    Happy New Year and thanks for your time.


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    • milkman

      Forte is way to high. He should be down in the 20’s. He’s ancient. Julio Jones is way to low. He should be top ten. Cobb is to low. Moreno is to high unless you know for a fact he will be back in Denver next year.

      Nice of you to include some rookies but no Seastrunk (likely #2 pick in rookie drafts) of Hyde?

      Nice list overall.

      • David Feld

        Thanks for the reply. First on Forte. He Just had his best season and recently turned 28. This offense is designed around him, and other RB’s at or over his age continue to perform as RB’s of the first tier. Also, if you’re in a PPR format, he’s as valuable as anyone. I really want to get this list right, so I’ll amend if convinced that a 28 year old stud RB needs to be moved down a high keeper and or dynasty list. I look at it as if a player has three years to go as a top performer, I don’t factor age in, that much, to the equation.

        I really don’t know that much, yet on the rookies, and I’m not convinced that a couple of the incoming WR’s aren’t as valuable as this year’s class of RB’s. Please share what you know with me so I can make this list better.

        I moved Lattimore up some, as I think he’s a stud in the rough and will be a great player.

        Let me know.

        Happy New Year,
        Dave

    • Anonymous

      Victor Cruz at 26 and 31?

      • David Feld

        Thanks for the head’s up. I fixed it.

        • Anonymous

          Bernard Pierce at 92 and 113?

    • Big Perm

      I saw Vernon Davis, an old Witten and even Kyle Rudolph but no Julius Thomas?

    • Milkman is an idiot

      Milkman, are you serious about Forte? The guy just came off a fantastic season and is only 28! I discredit everything else you said after that ridiculous ass statement.

      • David Feld

        Milkman is not an idiot. He plays in a dynasty format and commented on my rankings in that context. For the players in true dynasty leagues, 9 or more keepers, Forte, as great as he plays, is getting a bit long in the tooth. For most dynasty rankings, he has an average of about 10.5 overall, and that’s for a dynasty league start up. It’s not unreasonable. I happen to have a bias towards him since I own him on a couple of teams, and actively try to acquire him. I think the Trestman offense will have Forte at this level of performance for another two or so years. That’s why I rank him so high. In mid number keeper leagues, five or less, he’s absolutely the third or fourth player off the board for 2014. Same for a redraft.

        While we appreciate your input, and it is valued, please refrain from the name calling. We encourage and honor spirited debate and we certainly can all abide by the spirit of civility. If you take exception to something, please reflect a little on what exactly it is you take exception to. Form the response in a way that you’d like others to respond to you, and let it fly. Controversy is fine, just not the name calling.

        Thanks again for reading the article. BTW I just posted the rookie rankings for 2014. Please have a look and comment away.

        Thank you,
        David Feld

    • coldfusion167

      So I have the first pick in my dynasty draft. What position would you say is key in the first pick & who would you draft #1 overall? Thanks for your time.

      • Israel Katz

        hey Coldfusion, I as well have the first pick in a dynasty draft. (ie: one draft keep all players forever) my first thought was to get a QB to anchor my team for 10 years…that thought is right.

        The obvious pick is Andrew Luck, already a top 10 fantasy QB and only 24. He gives you a good 10 years at the helm as a top QB.

        Thoughts?

    • coldfusion167

      Interesting – I was thinking I’d go with Calvin Johnson but I’m not 100% confident in that pick. This is my first time doing a Dynasty draft & I’ve never had to consider age before. I’ve heard others mention Andrew Luck before as well & I think that your idea of building a team centered around him is a great idea. Picking a top QB is a great idea as they last longer than say a RB. I appreciate the response & will go with Luck. Much appreciated – thank u!