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Fantasy Football 2014 – A look ahead, Thoughts and Observations For Dynasty Teams

In the unlikely event your league has a meaningful game week 17, the 2013 fantasy football season has come to a close. It’s time to look ahead to 2014 and get a handle on where to rank the players. There’s been a decent amount of movement in the rankings and this is true at all positions, except maybe kicker. Also, there are some pretty serious prospects in the upcoming rookie draft.

An anomaly took place in one of my money leagues. A team with Philip Rivers, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Josh Gordon,  Julian Edelman, Jimmy Graham, Steven Hauschka, Detroit Lion D/St lost the week 16 superbowl to a team with Peyton Manning, Eddie Lacy, Frank Gore, Andre Johnson, Torrey Smith, T.Y. Hilton, Phil Dawson and the Carolina D/ST. Who’da thunk it? And I really could use the money. These things happen, and even if I maxed out my bench, I still would have lost.snotbubble

The reason I mention this? Even if you own the top players at four different positions (RB’s count twice) does not guarantee a championship trophy and check. It certainly bodes well for the upcoming season which can’t start soon enough. Every team that was heavily favored and lost, as well as those who were knocked out early by injury or player stupidity, agree.

So how does this impact 2014? You may ask. A couple of usual suspects are no longer the consensus top picks at their positions. Initially. Adrian Petterson and Calvin Johnson are candidates for downward movement on the ranker. Adrian’s concerns are age, wear and tear, poor QB play and bad team management. Also, the emergence of Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy as legitimate and long term superstars in great situations. This puts downward pressure on Adrian’s reign as the number one guy . A couple of other RB’s are making a case for the top four or five, as well. Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch and DeMarco Murray deserve consideration. Murray would be a serious threat if he didn’t miss four games a year, and Lynch, with a better WR presence, would not not have to take such a beating and would certainly have more room to run. He’s not doing all that badly as is, but c’mon. Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin and Zach Miller do not command the respect necessary to elevate Lynch to the top spot. A healthy Percy Harvin will go a long way to that end, but it may be too late. Lynch could move on, and Harvin may never be healthy enough to play a full season. Forte is as valuable as any player in the PPR formatted leagues, and had an excellent year for the standard scoring leagues, as well.

Calvin Johnson is the best wide receiver in football. No one else to throw to, except Bush, a knucklehead QB and terrible coaching are his issues. If Calvin is triple teamed, Stafford and his coaches have no idea what to do. It is a bad situation on a bad football team. The Lions have the best WR, one of the better running backs, a QB who throws for close to 5,000 yards per year and one of the best defensive lines in the NFL. Yet, in a season where the other teams in the division are not good enough or healthy enough to compete, the Lions just can’t or won’t get it together. It’s hard to bump Calvin down, but over in Cleveland, Josh Gordon, with literally no running game or QB (Brandon Weeden, Brian Hoyer and Jason Campbell!!!!!) is the top fantasy WR after missing the first two games. You have to go back a long way to find a year when Calvin wasn’t the top WR. This is really some accomplishment for Gordon, and if he hasn’t passed Calvin Johnson as the top WR going in to the 2014 fantasy season, then he’s at least pulled even, for now. At the very least he’s made it easier on fantasy owners who missed the opportunity to own Calvin Johnson. At the beginning of the year I argued that Dez Bryant would be the guy to take over the number two spot and make a challenge for number one. This may still happen, but right now, A.J. Green has been passed by Josh Gordon.

This is for a high-numbered keeper and or dynasty league. The true dynasty team s (20 – 53 keepers plus developmental/underclass college players) have a ranker that differs somewhat from what is posted below, but can be useful for them too.

Dynasty and keeper top 150

  1. LeSean McCoy
  2. Jamaal Charles
  3. Calvin Johnson
  4. Josh Gordon
  5. Marshawn Lynch
  6. A.J. Green
  7. Eddie Lacy
  8. Jimmy Graham
  9. Aaron Rodgers
  10. Matt Forte
  11. Adrian Peterson
  12. Dez Bryant
  13. Drew Brees
  14. Demaryious Thomas
  15. Andrew Luck
  16. Julio Jones
  17. Doug Martin
  18. Giovani Bernard
  19. Randall Cobb
  20. DeMarco Murray
  21. Alfred Morris
  22. Cam Newton
  23. C.J. Spiller
  24. Rob Gronkowski
  25. Antonio Brown
  26. Jordy Nelson
  27. Le’veon Bell
  28. Joicque Bell
  29. Zac Stacy
  30. Knowshon Moreno
  31. Victor Cruz
  32. Russell Wilson
  33. Brandon Marshall
  34. DeSean Jackson
  35. Alshon Jeffrey
  36. Trent Richardson
  37. Ray Rice
  38. Larry Fitzgerald
  39. RGIII
  40. Hakeem Nicks
  41. Matt Ryan
  42. David Wilson
  43. Roddy White
  44. Vincent Jackson
  45. Percy Harvin
  46. Torrey Smith
  47. Justin Blackmon
  48. Colin Kaepernick
  49. Andre Johnson
  50. Darren McFadden
  51. Stevan Ridley
  52. Reggie Bush
  53. Mike Wallace
  54. Pierre Garcon
  55. Dwayne Bowe
  56. DeAndre Hopkins
  57. Arian Foster
  58. Eric Decker
  59. Chris Johnson
  60. Maurice Jones – Drew
  61. Marcus Lattimore
  62. Peyton Manning
  63. Lamar Miller
  64. Tom Brady
  65. Matthew Stafford
  66. Nick Foles
  67. Julius Thomas
  68. Keenan Allen
  69. Marques Colston
  70. Ryan Matthews
  71. Steve Johnson
  72. Rashard Mendenhall
  73. Ben Tate
  74. Cordarrelle Patterson
  75. Shane Vereen
  76. Greg Olsen
  77. Philip Rivers
  78. Tony Romo
  79. Danny Amendola
  80. Wes Welker
  81. T.Y. Hilton
  82. Tavon Austin
  83. Steven Jackson
  84. Greg Jennings
  85. Vernon Davis
  86. Jordon Cameron
  87. Monte Ball
  88. Daren Sproles
  89. Michael Crabtree
  90. Kyle Rudolph
  91. Owen Daniels
  92. Bernard Pierce
  93. Pierre Thomas
  94. Frank Gore
  95. Sammy Watkins – best in this rookie class no matter where he goes
  96. Kaeem Carey – if he declares
  97. Lache Seastrunk
  98. Teddy Bridgewater – Houston or Cleveland, probably.
  99. Blake Bortles – Has a Roethisberger type game
  100. Johnny Football Manziel
  101. Bishop Sankey – if he delares
  102. Melvin Gordon – one never knows with Wisconsin backs
  103. Carlos Hyde
  104. Marquis Lee – probably will declare
  105. Mike Evans – Brandon Marshall-like
  106. Kendall Wright
  107. Charles Simms
  108. Cecil Shorts III
  109. Golden Tate
  110. Tre Mason
  111. Andre Williams
  112. Christine Michael
  113. Marion Grice
  114. James Wilder Jr.
  115. Robert Woods
  116. Mike Williams
  117. Mark Ingram
  118. Rashad Jennings
  119. Andre Ellington
  120. Ryan Tannehill
  121. Michael Floyd
  122. Chris Ivory
  123. Kelvin Benjamin – Looked great reeling in Winston’s mis-throws.
  124. Reuben Randle
  125. Danny Woodhead
  126. Eric Ebron – can catch anything he gets his hands on
  127. Jason Witten
  128. Jonathan Stewart
  129. DeAngelo Williams
  130. Robert Turbin
  131. Jace Amaro – another good dual  threat (catch/block) TE
  132. Marlon Brown
  133. Emanuel Sanders
  134. Anquan Boldin
  135. Markus Wheaton
  136. Austin Seferian – Jenkins – Has that Gronk look to his game
  137. Da’Rrick Rogers
  138. Reggie Wayne
  139. Jonathan Franklin
  140. Jeelen Strong – rounds out a strong rookie class of impact WR’s.
  141. Bilal Powell
  142. Daniel Thomas
  143. Stepfan Taylor
  144. Daryl Richardson
  145. Knile Davis
  146. Brett Carr
  147. Mike Glennon
  148. Jeremy Maclin
  149. Denarious Moore
  150. Riley Cooper
  151. Martellis Bennett
  152. James Jones
  153. Aaron Dobson
  154. Lagarrett Blount
  155. Allen Robinson
  156. Odell Beckham
  157. Terrance Williams
  158. Jay Cutler
  159. Zack Ertz
  160. Coby Fleener
  161. Marvin Jones
  162. Rod Srteater
  163. Julian Edelman
  164. Jerrel Jernigan
  165. Jeremy Kerley
  166. Vincent Brown
  167. Donald Brown
  168. Bobby Rainey
  169. Edwin Baker
  170. Quintin Patton
  171. Chris Givens

This is all very preliminary as we won’t see any player movement, the draft or deals for a few months. But since we’re all bored stiff with no fantasy football for a while, at least you have this list to mull over and comment on.

Happy New Year and thanks for your time.

8 Comments

  1. milkman

    December 29, 2013 at 05:47

    Forte is way to high. He should be down in the 20′s. He’s ancient. Julio Jones is way to low. He should be top ten. Cobb is to low. Moreno is to high unless you know for a fact he will be back in Denver next year.

    Nice of you to include some rookies but no Seastrunk (likely #2 pick in rookie drafts) of Hyde?

    Nice list overall.

    • David Feld

      January 2, 2014 at 08:54

      Thanks for the reply. First on Forte. He Just had his best season and recently turned 28. This offense is designed around him, and other RB’s at or over his age continue to perform as RB’s of the first tier. Also, if you’re in a PPR format, he’s as valuable as anyone. I really want to get this list right, so I’ll amend if convinced that a 28 year old stud RB needs to be moved down a high keeper and or dynasty list. I look at it as if a player has three years to go as a top performer, I don’t factor age in, that much, to the equation.

      I really don’t know that much, yet on the rookies, and I’m not convinced that a couple of the incoming WR’s aren’t as valuable as this year’s class of RB’s. Please share what you know with me so I can make this list better.

      I moved Lattimore up some, as I think he’s a stud in the rough and will be a great player.

      Let me know.

      Happy New Year,
      Dave

  2. Anonymous

    January 1, 2014 at 20:06

    Victor Cruz at 26 and 31?

    • David Feld

      January 2, 2014 at 08:56

      Thanks for the head’s up. I fixed it.

      • Anonymous

        January 6, 2014 at 11:05

        Bernard Pierce at 92 and 113?

  3. Big Perm

    January 8, 2014 at 13:43

    I saw Vernon Davis, an old Witten and even Kyle Rudolph but no Julius Thomas?

  4. Milkman is an idiot

    January 15, 2014 at 01:11

    Milkman, are you serious about Forte? The guy just came off a fantastic season and is only 28! I discredit everything else you said after that ridiculous ass statement.

    • David Feld

      January 15, 2014 at 01:53

      Milkman is not an idiot. He plays in a dynasty format and commented on my rankings in that context. For the players in true dynasty leagues, 9 or more keepers, Forte, as great as he plays, is getting a bit long in the tooth. For most dynasty rankings, he has an average of about 10.5 overall, and that’s for a dynasty league start up. It’s not unreasonable. I happen to have a bias towards him since I own him on a couple of teams, and actively try to acquire him. I think the Trestman offense will have Forte at this level of performance for another two or so years. That’s why I rank him so high. In mid number keeper leagues, five or less, he’s absolutely the third or fourth player off the board for 2014. Same for a redraft.

      While we appreciate your input, and it is valued, please refrain from the name calling. We encourage and honor spirited debate and we certainly can all abide by the spirit of civility. If you take exception to something, please reflect a little on what exactly it is you take exception to. Form the response in a way that you’d like others to respond to you, and let it fly. Controversy is fine, just not the name calling.

      Thanks again for reading the article. BTW I just posted the rookie rankings for 2014. Please have a look and comment away.

      Thank you,
      David Feld

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