FOXBORO, MA – DECEMBER 06: (L-R) Tom Brady #12, Wes Welker #83 and Aaron Hernandez #85 of the New England Patriots celebrate after Welker scored a touchdown in the third quarter against the New York Jets at Gillette Stadium on December 6, 2010 in Foxboro, Massachusetts. (Image credit: Getty Images via @daylife)
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Other than drafting and recognizing the sleepers of the fake football world, the best way to win in fantasy football is to try to trade for players at their lowest, and trade players when their value is at its peak. Fantasy Football owners are very prone to overreation, and it’s your job to take advantage of that.
Buy Low
Wes Welker (WR, NE)- I have been constantly telling fantasy owners to avoid drafting Welker, and they didn’t listen. He was being drafted as if he was likely to repeat his monster season, but that simply was never going to happen. Still, Welker has always been at least a mid-high end WR2 over the course of his career, and has been extremely consistent. You can’t throw that away with one bad game. Offer up a Miles Austin range player and get a still extremely reliable player with a low price tag.
Chris Johnson (RB, TEN)- I’m not quite ready to consider him a bust just yet. Week 1 was a bad sign, but it wasn’t completely his fault. The Patriots’ Defensive line ran right through the Titans’ Offensive line. I would expect Johnson to show shades of his CJ2K self when he has an easy matchup, and that’s a big difference maker. There’s nothing that could have his owners looking to get him off their team than 11 rushes for 4 yards. Offer up a Darren Sproles or Trent Richardson type player and see if his owners are completely off the ship.
Hakeem Nicks (WR, NYG)- It seems as if many people are removing Hakeem Nicks from WR1 status. Over the past two years, Nicks has been as consistent as any Wide Receiver. His foot injury does appear as if it will slightly harm his early season production, but it will be well worth the short wait. He does play the Buccaneers in week 2, and a foot injury shouldn’t keep him from producing against such a poor defense. Offer up a Dez Bryant, Marques Colston type player and see if his owners are concerned.
Brandon Marshall (WR, CHI)- Not only do fantasy owners overreact, but they also tend to have an extremely short memory. Marshall looked like he and Cutler were still an elite duo with 9 catches for 119 yards and a touchdown, but they most likely remember his more recent 2 catches for 24 yards performance on Thursday Night. His owners probably still view him as a WR1, but you can get him a bit cheaper with a Jordy Nelson type player.
Greg Jennings (WR, GB)- Have you ever lost Week 1 and an injury left your team another man short? You don’t want to go 0-2 to start the season, so you are thinking more short term than long term. Your willing to trade Greg Jennings, who will help you for the entire season, for a guy who could save your team for one week. If the Jennings owner in your league is 0-1, offer up a Demaryius Thomas or Brandon Lloyd type player.
Sell High
Alfred Morris (RB, WAS)- I recommended Morris as a solid RB2 when I heard he was starting for the Redskins in week 1. When Running Backs start for Shannahan’s offense, they typically succeed. You just never know who it will be, and I’m 100% confident Morris will not be the Redskin’s starter all season. Even in this game, Morris wasn’t particularly good. He was mostly a result of the 28 carries he received, as he averaged under 4 YPC. He definitely has short term value, especially if RG3 keeps getting his team that far ahead, but you can never know he will be starting for sure with Shannahan.
Frank Gore (RB, SF)- I strongly recommended against drafting Gore, and he made me look stupid in week 1. Don’t expect him to continue to receive that workload with him having to compete with Lamichael James, Kendall Hunter, and when healthy Brandon Jacobs. Hopefully other owners assume he will, and this could be your only chance to trade Gore while he still has high round value. Try to trade him for a Steven Jackson or Benjarvis Green-Ellis type player.
Shonn Greene (RB, NYJ)- When you think mediocre who do you immediately think of? I think of Shonn Greene. He had a really nice game in week 1, but still showed his lack of talent. He had no shortage of work, with 27 carries, but that won’t continue throughout the entire season. With the Jets lack of talent on offense, no way they’re getting ahead that early every game. They will likely be playing from behind for most of the season, leaving Greene with less carries than the top dog on a “ground and pound” Running Back should have. His value certainly isn’t soaring, but plenty of owners who ignored RB depth are searching for a starter. Try to improve another position with Greene.
Andre Johnson (WR, HOU)- I’ll keep this short and simple. He had his usual solid performance, and he’s still healthy. Trade him before a couple of weeks when the headache will likely begin.
Those are my Buy low, Sell high players for 2012 Fantasy Football. Hope you enjoyed it, and hopefully your able to make some of the deals mentioned in the article.
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