Buy Low Candidates – Analyzing BABIP to determine which players have gotten unlucky thus far in 2013
- Updated: May 6, 2013
We have not even finished 20% of the fantasy baseball season, and already full on panic is starting to set on in the minds of fantasy owners. Did they make a terrible draft pick, or has their guy just been supremely unlucky? Lets take a look at the top 30 worst BABIP’s in MLB through May 5th, 2013, and see who has been unlucky – making them an excellent buy low candidate with 85% of the season still left to be played.
I tried to keep it as simple as possible. I have ranked the top 30 worst BABIP this season (from worst on down), and provided their contact ratios along with career averages to assist in your research. I will include a little analysis for the players that I think are relevant enough to deserve it.
Top 30 Worst BABIP in MLB – Through May 5th, 2013
|There is a rumor floating around that Adam Dunn’s hitting coach has taught him to swing at a location, instead of looking for the pitch. Whether or not that is true, I wouldn’t buy on Dunn at this point in the season.|
|Once Coco Crisp returns healthy there just won’t be enough at-bats to go around in the crowded A’s outfield|
|If you are already a Reddick owner, I would hold on. He is struggling to return from a wrist injury which could explain his lower LD% this season, and I think once he gains his strength back he could start hitting bombs again. If you aren’t already an owner, there is no reason to make a move for him at this time.|
|Cozart has had a rough start to the season as evidenced by his .192 BABIP. His Line drive percentage will certainly creep into double digits, and if you are in a deep 12 team format that uses a MI, Cozart should certainly have a spot in your fantasy lineup.|
|Murphy is the forgotten man in the Rangers OF, but so far in 2013 he has just been unlucky. His line drive percentage at 22.8 is terrific, so the .195 BABIP can mainly be attributed to bad luck. Keep an eye on Murphy, once the hits start falling we should see the high average hitter everyone was looking for when they picked him up as a sleeper this preseason.|
|Not sure if Bautista is considered a buy low candidate or not. Depends on your format I assume, and how much value his owner places in him. Most of Bautista’s percentages are in line with his career averages, and while he has never had a high BABIP, you pick him up for one thing, and that is the POWER.|
|I’m not going to lie, I am NOT one of B.J. Upton’s biggest fans. His swing seems to lazy to me, and he just doesn’t seem to exude the raw power of his brother, but we are reaching the point now where B.J. is actually being dropped in standard leagues. Look at the BABIP, he is currently 100 points below his career average. Once the hits start falling, Upton should provide enough power and speed that he is worth an OF3/4 at the least.|
|Everyone thought they were getting the next Jose Bautista with this pick. Encarnacion’s hits just haven’t been finding the holes yet, but he is clearly a hold player as the power is still there.|
|Buck just doesn’t have the sustainable power to make him a player worth holding on to, oh yeah, there is also a guy named Travis D’Arnaud that should be here in a few months taking Buck’s starts away from him|
|If you need a 2nd catcher, Lucroy should be one of the first names on your list. For a catcher Jonathan has tremendous power, and the BABIP nearly 70 points below his career average suggests that a market correction is in order.|
|Everyone is down on Middlebrooks right now, but the kid is young and the hits will start falling as the weather warms up.|
|Yuck! Look at that sky high FB%. Moose doesn’t have enough power to be launching the ball in the air that often, and it certainly explains his poor start to the season. Looks like he needs to practice hitting a ball off a tee…|
|Amazing what a little plantar fascitis will do to your BABIP. Those grounders that Pujols hits deep into the hole used to be infield singles, but are now outs thanks to his reduced mobility. The good news is the bat is still there, just don’t expect too many triples.|
|The ultimate multi position eligible player, Prado’s percentages are right in line with his career averages and he can’t get this unlucky all season. Buy on Prado now while the price is right.|
|Assuming V-Mart is a catcher in your league he deserves to be rostered because he will be in the Tigers lineup everyday as the DH. His FB% is higher than we would like to see, but there is still plenty of season left.|
|I seriously doubt anyone is selling on Beltre, but it never hurts to ask, right?|
That is it for today. Please let me know what you thought of my analysis in the comments section below.